1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1899 Hoffenheim
6th · 58 pts · 32 played
LDWWD
1–0Full time
Werder Bremen
15th · 32 pts · 32 played
LLWDL
Our take
1899 Hoffenheim were clear favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for 1899 Hoffenheim. 1899 Hoffenheim had 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7 and had to travel 425 km.
Away travel425 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1899 Hoffenheim62%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen18%
1899 Hoffenheim56%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen20%
1899 Hoffenheim62%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen18%
1899 Hoffenheim53%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen24%
1899 Hoffenheim60%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen18%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 33
Team strength
1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
46
AttackIn forecast
56
43
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
84%
Scored inContext
66%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
13.91
ShotsContext
12.94
5.09
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.23
37%
On target shareContext
32%
9.65
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
68%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.23
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.88
Shots allowedContext
13.31
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.40
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
68%
Save rateContext
64%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
456
PassesContext
474
368
Accurate passesContext
392
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.69
FoulsContext
9.97
8.78
Fouls sufferedContext
9.69
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.90
ShotsContext
12.60
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
34%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
68%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.10
9.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.78
BlocksContext
4.63
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
55%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
455
PassesContext
494
366
Accurate passesContext
411
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.00
FoulsContext
10.40
7.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km968 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel425 km956 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1899 Hoffenheim |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 425 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 968 km | 956 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
11F. Asllani
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
6J. Stage
11J. Njinmah
29Salim Musah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
1899 Hoffenheim · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-5
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 1.31
Werder Bremen · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-9
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1899 Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 4–1 H | W 3–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–5 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 55 of 93 · 1.77 per game | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 1899 Hoffenheim wins0 draws2 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.29 – 1.57
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2026Werder Bremen0–21899 Hoffenheim
- 16 Feb 2025Werder Bremen1–31899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim3–4Werder Bremen
- 3 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim2–1Werder Bremen
- 7 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–31899 Hoffenheim
- 2 Apr 2023Werder Bremen1–21899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.94 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 56% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.00 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 10.68 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 22/32 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 20/32 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 15/32 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 3.88 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 10/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.67 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.71
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+55%league 38%
Fouls21.0league 20.2
Penalties0.24league 0.35
Home wins42%league 43%
1899 Hoffenheim2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W19 Oct 24H · VfL Bochum3–11
- W20 Apr 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31
Werder Bremen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.3.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L22 Feb 26A · FC St. Pauli1–25
- W4 Oct 25H · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D3 May 25A · Union Berlin2–24
- L7 Feb 25A · Bayern München0–33
- W9 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1899 Hoffenheim32 games · scored 64 · conceded 48
5
8
0-15
11
9
16-30
19
7
31-45
14
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
10
10
76-90
Werder Bremen32 games · scored 37 · conceded 57
2
7
0-15
4
8
16-30
5
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
8
14
61-75
14
11
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
