AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. AC Milan had 5 days of rest, Como 4.2 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days5 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
AC Milan52%
Draw25%
Como23%
AC Milan57%
Draw24%
Como19%
AC Milan53%
Draw25%
Como22%
AC Milan44%
Draw27%
Como29%
AC Milan53%
Draw25%
Como22%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 100
Team strength
AC Milan
Como
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
72
AttackIn forecast
72
69
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanComo
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
96%
Scored inContext
71%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.38
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.04
35%
On target shareContext
35%
9.27
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
69%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.53
10.71
Shots allowedContext
9.33
3.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.52
3.36
BlocksContext
2.95
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
84%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
482
PassesContext
527
422
Accurate passesContext
460
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.54
FoulsContext
13.25
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.70
ShotsContext
15.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
33%
9.88
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
69%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.20
Shots allowedContext
7.80
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.22
BlocksContext
2.50
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
81%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
494
PassesContext
561
432
Accurate passesContext
494
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.50
FoulsContext
11.50
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 435 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
30A. Jashari
14L. Modrić
4S. Ricci
24Z. Athekame
18C. Nkunku
10Rafael Leão
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
2M. Kempf
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
31M. Vojvoda
23M. Perrone
8Sergi Roberto
77I. Van der Brempt
20M. Baturina
6M. Caqueret
10N. Paz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Como+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-1
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 0.82
Como · Away
1.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Torino | W 3–2 A | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Inter | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Parma | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 50 of 69 · 2.17 per game | 41 of 69 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 AC Milan wins0 draws0 Como wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Jan 2026Como1–3AC Milan
- 15 Mar 2025AC Milan2–1Como
- 14 Jan 2025Como1–2AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 2.33 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 42% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| AC Milan | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 3.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 7.05 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 19% 4/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 14% 3/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.67 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 13/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 7/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| AC Milan | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 6.90 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.20 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.80
Red cards0.20league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls23.9league 25.4
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins46%league 37%
AC Milan10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- D8 Jan 26H · Genoa1–13
- L27 Feb 25A · Bologna1–22
- W22 Sep 24A · Inter2–11
- D27 Apr 24A · Juventus0–01
- W17 Mar 24A · Verona3–13
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Mar 25H · Empoli1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan24 games · scored 40 · conceded 18
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
2
31-45
10
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
9
2
76-90
Como23 games · scored 36 · conceded 17
7
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
