AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 16). AC Milan had ? days of rest, Cremonese ? and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
AC Milan75%
Draw17%
Cremonese8%
AC Milan76%
Draw16%
Cremonese8%
AC Milan74%
Draw17%
Cremonese8%
AC Milan68%
Draw20%
Cremonese12%
AC Milan76%
Draw16%
Cremonese8%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 9
Team strength
AC Milan
Cremonese
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
72
AttackIn forecast
16
69
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanCremonese
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
32%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
63%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.60
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.90
BlocksContext
4.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
79%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
448
PassesContext
348
391
Accurate passesContext
271
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.80
FoulsContext
10.20
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
19Y. Fofana
14L. Modrić
8R. Loftus-Cheek
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
7S. Giménez
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
33A. Grassi
18M. Collocolo
7A. Zerbin
90F. Bonazzoli
77D. Okereke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Cremonese-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cremonese · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AC Milan wins2 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 May 2023AC Milan1–1Cremonese
- 8 Nov 2022Cremonese0–0AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 44% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| AC Milan | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 44% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| AC Milan | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.13 | 6.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 4.00
Red cards0.00league 0.50
Cards 5+11%league 50%
Fouls26.6league 30.5
Penalties0.00league 0.00
Home wins44%league 0%
AC Milan1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 May 25A · Genoa2–15
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC MilanCremoneseAC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
