AC Milan vs Lecce – 20 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 8th · 8 pts · 4 played WWDD

3–0Full time

Lecce 12th · 6 pts · 4 played WLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were clear favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AC Milan. AC Milan had 4 days of rest, Lecce 7.2 and had to travel 925 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel925 kmRest days4 · 7.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

AC Milan73%

Draw16%

Lecce11%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.88

AC Milan67%

Draw20%

Lecce14%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.85

AC Milan73%

Draw16%

Lecce11%

Expected goals 2.54 – 0.88

AC Milan66%

Draw19%

Lecce15%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.99

AC Milan73%

Draw16%

Lecce11%

Expected goals 2.54 – 0.91

Over 2.5 67% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

23°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 70%

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 52

Team strength

AC Milan

Lecce

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

72 AttackIn forecast 36

69 DefenceIn forecast 30

63 Form indexContext 43

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Lecce

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.68

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

100% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.50 ShotsContext 9.00

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 39%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 4.75

57% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.75 Shots allowedContext 17.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.50

3.33 BlocksContext 2.33

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.25

77% Save rateContext 74%

59% PossessionIn forecast 40%

540 PassesContext 363

476 Accurate passesContext 281

88% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.50 FoulsContext 12.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.25

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 9.50

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 38%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

55% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.80 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

3.44 BlocksContext 2.75

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

72% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 40%

481 PassesContext 318

422 Accurate passesContext 240

88% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.80 FoulsContext 11.90

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan WWDDL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,208 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 63 · 8 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Lazio2–21.3 xPts
D6 SepA · Juventus1–11.0 xPts
W28 AugH · Venezia2–02.4 xPts
W23 AugA · Torino2–11.5 xPts

Lecce WLLW

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel925 km1,566 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

Form 43 · 6 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts
L31 AugH · AS Roma0–40.7 xPts
W23 AugA · Venezia2–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	7.2Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,208 km	1,566 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.9	20.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

2P. Estupiñán 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 21S. Chukwueze

56A. Saelemaekers 11C. Pulišić

9Gonçalo Ramos

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 5J. Siebert 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 20I. Ilić 50S. Pierotti

99J. Monteiro 9N. Štulić 29L. Coulibaly

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lecce-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Lecce · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Lecce
Venezia	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 AC Milan wins2 draws0 Lecce wins

Goals per game2.25 – 0.75 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets63% · 0%

18 Jan 2026AC Milan1–0Lecce
29 Aug 2025Lecce0–2AC Milan
8 Mar 2025Lecce2–3AC Milan
27 Sep 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
6 Apr 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
11 Nov 2023Lecce2–2AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	1.25
Conceded per game	1.00	1.75
Match goals	2.75	3.00	3.43
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	25%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	4	4

	AC Milan	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	2.60	2.40	3.43
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	67%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.50
Corners conceded	3.50	4.25
Match total	6.50	7.75	9.52
Over 8.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.25
Opponent cards	1.50	0.75
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.38
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4

	AC Milan	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	3.40
Corners conceded	3.10	4.20
Match total	6.70	7.60	9.52
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.80	4.00	3.38
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.23league 3.31

Red cards0.15league 0.02

Cards 5+40%league 24%

Fouls26.1league 22.1

Penalties0.27league 0.10

Home wins38%league 43%

AC Milan5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L6 Dec 24A · Atalanta1–20
W7 Jan 24A · Empoli3–02
L9 Dec 23A · Atalanta2–35
W27 Sep 23A · Cagliari3–11
D13 Mar 23H · Salernitana1–12

Lecce5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

W17 May 26A · Sassuolo3–24
L6 Apr 26H · Atalanta0–30
D27 Apr 25A · Atalanta1–11
D27 Nov 23A · Verona2–22
L21 Jan 23A · Verona0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.