AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 65). Absences weigh more on Napoli. AC Milan had 8 days of rest, Napoli 6 and had to travel 658 km.
Away travel658 kmRest days8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
AC Milan39%
Draw28%
Napoli33%
AC Milan38%
Draw27%
Napoli35%
AC Milan37%
Draw28%
Napoli35%
AC Milan32%
Draw28%
Napoli40%
AC Milan39%
Draw27%
Napoli34%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 64
Team strength
AC Milan
Napoli
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
72
AttackIn forecast
61
69
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanNapoli
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
0.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
100%
Scored inContext
100%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.75
ShotsContext
15.75
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
38%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.75
75%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
6.25
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
78%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
506
PassesContext
554
450
Accurate passesContext
491
89%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.25
FoulsContext
14.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.80
ShotsContext
12.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
30%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.63
65%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
2.56
BlocksContext
3.60
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
76%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
493
PassesContext
513
437
Accurate passesContext
450
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.20
FoulsContext
11.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel658 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 658 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
7S. Giménez
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
5Juan Jesus
35L. Marianucci
22G. Di Lorenzo
68S. Lobotka
11K. De Bruyne
8S. McTominay
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Napoli-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Napoli · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 AC Milan wins1 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 30 Mar 2025Napoli2–1AC Milan
- 29 Oct 2024AC Milan0–2Napoli
- 11 Feb 2024AC Milan1–0Napoli
- 29 Oct 2023Napoli2–2AC Milan
- 2 Apr 2023Napoli0–4AC Milan
- 18 Sep 2022AC Milan1–2Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| AC Milan | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 8.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 2.75 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| AC Milan | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.13 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.53
Red cards0.23league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 34%
Fouls22.7league 26.0
Penalties0.17league 0.21
Home wins42%league 38%
AC Milan10 with this referee
Record8-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D2 Feb 25H · Inter1–10
- D23 Nov 24H · Juventus0–03
- W19 Oct 24H · Udinese1–03
- W23 Apr 23H · Lecce2–01
- W3 Sep 22H · Inter3–25
Napoli3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 Jan 25H · Juventus2–12
- W28 Feb 24A · Sassuolo6–10
- W21 Jan 23A · Salernitana2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan4 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Napoli4 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
