AC Milan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AC Milan38.9%fair odds 2.57
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.61
Napoli33.4%fair odds 2.99
Expected goals1.35 – 1.24total 2.59
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AC Milan ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AC Milan goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.56
- 1–09.5%10.54
- 0–18.6%11.61
- 2–18.5%11.77
- 0–08.2%12.25
- 1–27.8%12.88
- 2–06.9%14.56
- 0–25.7%17.43
- 2–25.3%19.03
- 3–13.8%26.10
Winning margin
6.6%
AC Milan by 3+
fair 15.25
11.6%
AC Milan by 2
fair 8.62
20.7%
AC Milan by 1
fair 4.83
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.61
18.9%
Napoli by 1
fair 5.30
9.7%
Napoli by 2
fair 10.32
4.8%
Napoli by 3+
fair 20.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
AC Milan goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Napoli goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 38.9% | 39.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.8% | +1.0 pp |
| Napoli win | 33.4% | 33.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% | 51.8% | -3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.3% | 56.4% | -3.1 pp |
| Expected goals AC Milan | 1.35 | 1.44 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.24 | 1.31 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AC Milan win38.9%2.57
- Draw27.7%3.61
- Napoli win33.4%2.99
- Double chance AC Milan or draw66.6%1.50
- Double chance AC Milan or Napoli72.3%1.38
- Double chance Napoli or draw61.1%1.64
- Draw no bet AC Milan53.8%1.86
- Draw no bet Napoli46.2%2.16
Goals
- Over 0.591.8%1.09
- Over 1.573.7%1.36
- Over 2.547.9%2.09
- Over 3.526.2%3.82
- Over 4.512.1%8.25
- Under 1.526.3%3.81
- Under 2.552.1%1.92
- Under 3.573.8%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes53.3%1.88
- No46.7%2.14
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.50
- AC Milan win and yes18.0%5.55
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Napoli win and yes15.7%6.35
Team goals
- AC Milan over 0.574.2%1.35
- AC Milan over 1.539.2%2.55
- AC Milan over 2.515.5%6.44
- Napoli over 0.571.0%1.41
- Napoli over 1.535.1%2.85
- Napoli over 2.512.9%7.77
- AC Milan clean sheet29.0%3.45
- Napoli clean sheet25.8%3.87
- AC Milan win to nil20.9%4.79
- Napoli win to nil17.7%5.66
Handicap
- AC Milan −1.518.2%5.51
- AC Milan −2.56.6%15.25
- Napoli +1.581.8%1.22
- Napoli +2.593.4%1.07
- Napoli −1.514.5%6.88
- AC Milan +1.585.5%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won51.1%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right48.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 44.7% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 52.9% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 63.4% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 81.0% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 27 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6119 | 0.5854 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.1% | 51.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 27 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.