AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were clear favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 28). AC Milan had 5.7 days of rest, Sassuolo 7.9 and had to travel 142 km.
Away travel142 kmRest days5.7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
AC Milan69%
Draw20%
Sassuolo11%
AC Milan71%
Draw18%
Sassuolo11%
AC Milan69%
Draw20%
Sassuolo11%
AC Milan63%
Draw23%
Sassuolo14%
AC Milan71%
Draw18%
Sassuolo10%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 7
Team strength
AC Milan
Sassuolo
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
72
AttackIn forecast
41
69
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanSassuolo
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
0.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
93%
Scored inContext
71%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.21
ShotsContext
11.00
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.93
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.08
11.07
Shots allowedContext
13.14
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.46
BlocksContext
3.07
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
85%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
473
PassesContext
382
415
Accurate passesContext
313
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.57
FoulsContext
12.43
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
13.86
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.60
BlocksContext
2.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
87%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
460
PassesContext
376
401
Accurate passesContext
305
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.30
FoulsContext
11.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km251 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel142 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.7Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 251 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
8R. Loftus-Cheek
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
18C. Nkunku
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
5F. Candé
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
20A. Fadera
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sassuolo-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 0.86
Sassuolo · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Inter | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Napoli | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 23 of 30 · 2.30 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 AC Milan wins2 draws2 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 14 Apr 2024Sassuolo3–3AC Milan
- 30 Dec 2023AC Milan1–0Sassuolo
- 29 Jan 2023AC Milan2–5Sassuolo
- 30 Aug 2022Sassuolo0–0AC Milan
- 22 May 2022Sassuolo0–3AC Milan
- 28 Nov 2021AC Milan1–3Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.79 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 2.57 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| AC Milan | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.58 | 7.86 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 3/12 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 7% 1/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 4.71 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| AC Milan | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 7.80 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.85
Red cards0.00league 0.16
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls25.3league 25.9
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins57%league 40%
AC MilanNo previous matches with this referee.
Sassuolo2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Nov 25A · Atalanta3–02
- D18 Oct 25A · Lecce0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan14 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sassuolo14 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
4
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
7
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
