AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Udinese. AC Milan had 4.9 days of rest, Udinese 5.2 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days4.9 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
AC Milan58%
Draw26%
Udinese16%
AC Milan66%
Draw20%
Udinese13%
AC Milan57%
Draw26%
Udinese17%
AC Milan51%
Draw28%
Udinese21%
AC Milan59%
Draw24%
Udinese16%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 54
Team strength
AC Milan
Udinese
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
72
AttackIn forecast
22
69
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanUdinese
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
0.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
87%
Scored inContext
74%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
13.06
ShotsContext
10.84
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.24
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
69%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.91
10.84
Shots allowedContext
12.74
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
3.28
BlocksContext
3.48
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
83%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
486
PassesContext
352
427
Accurate passesContext
282
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.74
FoulsContext
13.52
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.39
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.97
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
71%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
80%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
501
PassesContext
344
441
Accurate passesContext
275
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.30
FoulsContext
13.30
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,315 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
33D. Bartesaghi
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
24Z. Athekame
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
4S. Ricci
11C. Pulišić
10Rafael Leão
56A. Saelemaekers
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
10N. Zaniolo
19K. Ehizibue
32J. Ekkelenkamp
9K. Davis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Udinese-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.07points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-2
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 0.87
Udinese · Away
1.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-7
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Torino | W 3–2 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Como | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| AS Roma | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 60 of 90 · 2.00 per game | 40 of 90 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 AC Milan wins2 draws2 Udinese wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 11%
- 20 Sep 2025Udinese0–3AC Milan
- 11 Apr 2025Udinese0–4AC Milan
- 19 Oct 2024AC Milan1–0Udinese
- 20 Jan 2024Udinese2–3AC Milan
- 4 Nov 2023AC Milan0–1Udinese
- 18 Mar 2023Udinese3–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.77 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.48 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 48% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| AC Milan | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.32 | 4.66 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 9.18 | 8.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 11/28 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.81 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 17/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 9/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| AC Milan | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 10.00 | 8.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.72
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+43%league 35%
Fouls24.9league 25.0
Penalties0.26league 0.30
Home wins39%league 40%
AC Milan3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 25H · Como2–13
- W2 Dec 23H · Frosinone3–11
- D25 Feb 22H · Udinese1–12
Udinese8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 3
- W31 Aug 25A · Inter2–13
- L28 Apr 23A · Lecce0–12
- D26 Feb 23H · Spezia2–22
- L7 Jan 23A · Juventus0–12
- L23 Oct 22H · Torino1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan31 games · scored 47 · conceded 24
4
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
11
4
31-45
12
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
11
5
76-90
Udinese31 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
6
31-45
8
8
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
9
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
