Academico Viseu
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Academico Viseu36.8%fair odds 2.72
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Guimaraes35.9%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.34 – 1.32total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Guimaraes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Academico Viseu ↓ · Guimaraes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Academico Viseu goals, columns Guimaraes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.69
- 1–08.7%11.51
- 0–18.5%11.70
- 2–18.3%12.05
- 1–28.2%12.24
- 0–07.6%13.14
- 2–06.3%15.94
- 0–26.1%16.44
- 2–25.5%18.23
- 3–13.7%26.92
Winning margin
6.1%
Academico Viseu by 3+
fair 16.50
10.9%
Academico Viseu by 2
fair 9.16
19.8%
Academico Viseu by 1
fair 5.04
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
19.5%
Guimaraes by 1
fair 5.12
10.6%
Guimaraes by 2
fair 9.45
5.8%
Guimaraes by 3+
fair 17.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Academico Viseu goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Guimaraes goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu win | 36.8% | 37.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Guimaraes win | 35.9% | 35.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 49.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 54.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Academico Viseu | 1.34 | 1.34 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Guimaraes | 1.32 | 1.30 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Academico Viseu win36.8%2.72
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Guimaraes win35.9%2.79
- Double chance Academico Viseu or draw64.1%1.56
- Double chance Academico Viseu or Guimaraes72.7%1.38
- Double chance Guimaraes or draw63.2%1.58
- Draw no bet Academico Viseu50.7%1.97
- Draw no bet Guimaraes49.3%2.03
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Academico Viseu win and yes17.8%5.62
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Guimaraes win and yes17.4%5.76
Team goals
- Academico Viseu over 0.573.9%1.35
- Academico Viseu over 1.538.8%2.57
- Academico Viseu over 2.515.3%6.54
- Guimaraes over 0.573.4%1.36
- Guimaraes over 1.538.1%2.62
- Guimaraes over 2.514.8%6.75
- Academico Viseu clean sheet26.6%3.75
- Guimaraes clean sheet26.1%3.83
- Academico Viseu win to nil19.0%5.25
- Guimaraes win to nil18.5%5.41
Handicap
- Academico Viseu −1.517.0%5.89
- Academico Viseu −2.56.1%16.50
- Guimaraes +1.583.0%1.20
- Guimaraes +2.593.9%1.06
- Guimaraes −1.516.3%6.12
- Academico Viseu +1.583.7%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored46
Favourite won52.2%
Avg chance given to result45.7%
1X2 Brier0.535
Over 2.5 called right63.0%
BTTS called right47.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.6% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 52.9% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.0% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.3% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 46 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5136 | 0.5045 |
| Avg chance given to result | 47.0% | 48.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 46 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.