Academico Viseu
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Guimaraes. Academico Viseu had 6 days of rest, Guimaraes 6.1 and had to travel 93 km.
Away travel93 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Academico Viseu37%
Draw26%
Guimaraes37%
Academico Viseu43%
Draw26%
Guimaraes31%
Academico Viseu37%
Draw26%
Guimaraes37%
Academico Viseu31%
Draw26%
Guimaraes44%
Academico Viseu38%
Draw26%
Guimaraes36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Viseu)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Academico Viseu
Guimaraes
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
28
AttackIn forecast
28
31
DefenceIn forecast
39
33
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Academico ViseuGuimaraes
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-1.12
60%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
18.80
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
21%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
52%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
3%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.20
Shots allowedContext
6.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.00
BlocksContext
2.25
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
68%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
403
PassesContext
446
335
Accurate passesContext
365
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.20
FoulsContext
16.20
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.59
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
15.70
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
24%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
52%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.78
17.20
Shots allowedContext
7.80
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.00
BlocksContext
1.89
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
68%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
403
PassesContext
439
335
Accurate passesContext
359
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.20
FoulsContext
13.90
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Academico Viseu
DLDLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 5 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Guimaraes
LLWLD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel93 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Academico Viseu |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 93 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 32 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Academico Viseu
Confirmed XI
98Ewerton(G)
57G. Costa
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
47L. Gohi
8C. Kahraman
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
5A. Sidibé
28Thiago Balieiro
23T. Strata
44L. Doucet
16Beni
7O. Camara
20Samu
11Gustavo Silva
9A. Jakupovic
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Academico Viseu
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Academico Viseu · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Academico Viseu | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.60 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Academico Viseu | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Academico Viseu | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.00 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.40 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Academico Viseu | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.10 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.10 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Academico Viseu5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes4 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Academico Viseu5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes9 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
