Academico Viseu
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Academico Viseu44.3%fair odds 2.26
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Santa Clara29.2%fair odds 3.42
Expected goals1.54 – 1.21total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Academico Viseu ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Academico Viseu goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.97
- 1–09.2%10.83
- 2–19.2%10.90
- 2–07.6%13.17
- 1–27.2%13.89
- 0–17.1%14.07
- 0–07.0%14.21
- 2–25.5%18.04
- 3–14.7%21.24
- 0–24.7%21.39
Winning margin
9.1%
Academico Viseu by 3+
fair 11.04
13.5%
Academico Viseu by 2
fair 7.38
21.7%
Academico Viseu by 1
fair 4.60
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
16.9%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 5.91
8.3%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 11.99
4.0%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 25.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Academico Viseu goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Santa Clara goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu win | 44.3% | 44.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 29.2% | 29.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 52.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.7% | 55.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Academico Viseu | 1.54 | 1.54 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 1.21 | 1.21 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Academico Viseu win44.3%2.26
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Santa Clara win29.2%3.42
- Double chance Academico Viseu or draw70.8%1.41
- Double chance Academico Viseu or Santa Clara73.6%1.36
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw55.7%1.80
- Draw no bet Academico Viseu60.3%1.66
- Draw no bet Santa Clara39.7%2.52
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.6%1.31
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.37
- Over 4.514.4%6.93
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes55.7%1.79
- No44.3%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.32
- Academico Viseu win and yes21.5%4.65
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Santa Clara win and yes14.8%6.74
Team goals
- Academico Viseu over 0.578.6%1.27
- Academico Viseu over 1.545.5%2.20
- Academico Viseu over 2.520.1%4.97
- Santa Clara over 0.570.1%1.43
- Santa Clara over 1.534.0%2.94
- Santa Clara over 2.512.2%8.18
- Academico Viseu clean sheet29.9%3.35
- Santa Clara clean sheet21.4%4.66
- Academico Viseu win to nil22.8%4.38
- Santa Clara win to nil14.4%6.94
Handicap
- Academico Viseu −1.522.6%4.42
- Academico Viseu −2.59.1%11.04
- Santa Clara +1.577.4%1.29
- Santa Clara +2.590.9%1.10
- Santa Clara −1.512.3%8.11
- Academico Viseu +1.587.7%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won27.3%
Avg chance given to result36.1%
1X2 Brier0.731
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 44.7% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 51.4% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.