Ajax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 15). Ajax had 13.3 days of rest, Excelsior 14.1 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days13.3 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Ajax69%
Draw19%
Excelsior12%
Ajax67%
Draw20%
Excelsior13%
Ajax69%
Draw19%
Excelsior12%
Ajax62%
Draw22%
Excelsior16%
Ajax68%
Draw20%
Excelsior13%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amsterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 47
Team strength
Ajax
Excelsior
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
66
AttackIn forecast
21
55
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AjaxExcelsior
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
92%
Scored inContext
75%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.33
ShotsContext
12.42
6.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
42%
On target shareContext
34%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
73%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.33
Shots allowedContext
16.33
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.92
4.17
BlocksContext
4.58
3.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.75
70%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
525
PassesContext
359
455
Accurate passesContext
276
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.42
FoulsContext
13.33
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.20
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
38%
On target shareContext
32%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
68%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.30
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
16.40
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
4.70
BlocksContext
5.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
59%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
461
PassesContext
361
391
Accurate passesContext
279
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.30
FoulsContext
12.90
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ajax
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km70 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ajax |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 70 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ajax
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
41G. Alders
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
8K. Taylor
6Y. Regeer
11M. Godts
10O. Gloukh
17O. Edvardsen
25W. Weghorst
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
17Nolan Martens
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
20L. Hartjes
23I. Yegoian
11G. de Regt
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
33Jerolldino Bergraaf
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ajax
Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ajax+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Excelsior-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Ajax · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Excelsior · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Twente | W 3–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 14 of 27 · 1.56 per game | 7 of 27 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Ajax wins1 draws0 Excelsior wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Ajax
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ajax | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.83 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 58% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Ajax | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ajax | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.42 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.66 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 2.83 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Ajax | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 9.60 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.33
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+32%league 32%
Fouls22.2league 22.1
Penalties0.26league 0.29
Home wins51%league 50%
Ajax4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Feb 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–02
- W19 Jan 25A · Heerenveen2–01
- W1 Dec 24A · NEC Nijmegen2–15
- D17 Dec 23H · PEC Zwolle2–21
Excelsior3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L24 Aug 25A · Utrecht1–40
- D7 Oct 23A · Vitesse0–00
- L2 Sep 23A · Heracles1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ajax12 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Excelsior12 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
6
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
