Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ajax69.0%fair odds 1.45
Draw19.0%fair odds 5.27
Excelsior12.0%fair odds 8.30
Expected goals2.27 – 0.85total 3.11
Likeliest score2–011.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ajax ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ajax goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.4%8.75
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 1–09.6%10.38
- 1–19.0%11.13
- 3–08.6%11.59
- 3–17.3%13.69
- 0–04.9%20.40
- 4–04.9%20.45
- 4–14.1%24.17
- 2–24.1%24.45
Winning margin
25.3%
Ajax by 3+
fair 3.95
20.7%
Ajax by 2
fair 4.83
22.9%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.36
19.0%
Draw
fair 5.27
8.3%
Excelsior by 1
fair 12.08
2.9%
Excelsior by 2
fair 34.61
0.9%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 114.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Ajax goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Excelsior goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 69.0% | 67.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 19.0% | 19.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Excelsior win | 12.0% | 12.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 57.2% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 50.0% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Ajax | 2.27 | 2.16 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 0.85 | 0.82 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ajax win69.0%1.45
- Draw19.0%5.27
- Excelsior win12.0%8.30
- Double chance Ajax or draw88.0%1.14
- Double chance Ajax or Excelsior81.0%1.23
- Double chance Excelsior or draw31.0%3.23
- Draw no bet Ajax85.1%1.17
- Draw no bet Excelsior14.9%6.73
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.2%1.22
- Over 2.560.1%1.66
- Over 3.537.8%2.65
- Over 4.520.4%4.90
- Under 1.517.8%5.60
- Under 2.539.9%2.51
- Under 3.562.2%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Ajax win and yes31.0%3.23
- Draw and yes14.1%7.11
- Excelsior win and yes6.6%15.21
Team goals
- Ajax over 0.589.6%1.12
- Ajax over 1.566.1%1.51
- Ajax over 2.539.5%2.53
- Excelsior over 0.557.1%1.75
- Excelsior over 1.520.8%4.81
- Excelsior over 2.55.4%18.42
- Ajax clean sheet42.9%2.33
- Excelsior clean sheet10.4%9.64
- Ajax win to nil38.0%2.63
- Excelsior win to nil5.5%18.28
Handicap
- Ajax −1.546.1%2.17
- Ajax −2.525.3%3.95
- Excelsior +1.553.9%1.85
- Excelsior +2.574.7%1.34
- Excelsior −1.53.8%26.58
- Ajax +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right67.9%
BTTS called right59.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.1% | 26.3% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.5% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 63.7% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 86 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5509 | 0.5305 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.9% |
| Favourite won | 53.5% | 58.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 86 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.