Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel537 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Alaves—%
Draw—%
Elche—%
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
Forecast from 5 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Elche. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Elche
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
-
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Elche
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Elche
−0.74
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.98xG against1.72
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AlavesElche
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
48
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
51
14
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesElche
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.78
ShotsContext
11.00
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
37%
On target shareContext
38%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
62%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.88
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.33
Shots allowedContext
14.89
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.50
BlocksContext
3.63
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
340
PassesContext
478
270
Accurate passesContext
408
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.64
13.67
FoulsContext
13.44
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
10.20
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
40%
On target shareContext
38%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
61%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.78
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
4.22
BlocksContext
3.44
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
341
PassesContext
463
271
Accurate passesContext
391
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.60
FoulsContext
14.10
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
LLDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km843 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
Elche
DLWDD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel537 km1,025 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 843 km | 1,025 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Last XI · not confirmed
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Elche
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
3R. Revivo
23Víctor Chust
47J. Morcillo
2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda
24A. Osorio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Elche
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Elche · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Racing Santander | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Villarreal | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Alaves wins1 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 9 May 2026Elche1–1Alaves
- 5 Oct 2025Alaves3–1Elche
- 5 Feb 2022Elche3–1Alaves
- 26 Oct 2021Alaves1–0Elche
- 11 May 2021Elche0–2Alaves
- 18 Oct 2020Alaves0–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 3.11 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Alaves | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.23 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.44 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Alaves | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.60 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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