La Liga Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 20 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Real Betis 4th · 19 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel703 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Real Betis—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 5 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Real Betis. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubReal Betis
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 72
51 AttackIn forecast 79
64 DefenceIn forecast 59
70 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubReal Betis
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.65
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.96
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
57% Scored inContext 100%
57% Clean sheetsContext 44%
14.71 ShotsContext 16.44
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33
29% On target shareContext 39%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 9.67
65% Box shareContext 56%
7% ConversionContext 11%
3.33 OffsidesContext 1.33
10.43 Shots allowedContext 15.33
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
1.80 BlocksContext 3.78
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
83% Save rateContext 70%
54% PossessionIn forecast 51%
494 PassesContext 495
420 Accurate passesContext 429
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.03
11.43 FoulsContext 9.89
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.56
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.71
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
60% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.60 ShotsContext 16.70
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
30% On target shareContext 37%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
69% Box shareContext 58%
7% ConversionContext 13%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.40
10.10 Shots allowedContext 14.60
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
1.71 BlocksContext 3.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
72% Save rateContext 67%
50% PossessionIn forecast 52%
448 PassesContext 504
372 Accurate passesContext 438
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.98
12.70 FoulsContext 10.70
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km885 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Real Betis
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel703 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Barcelona2–50.8 xPts
  • W14 OctH · FC Porto3–21.4 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Osasuna5–22.0 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Getafe1–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec7La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km703 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways885 km781 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Real Betis Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Barcelona (H) 2–5, 17 Oct
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 2Héctor Bellerín
25Dani Ceballos 6F. Bernal
10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 20G. Lo Celso
9C. Hernández

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Betis Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Real Betis · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubReal Betis
Valencia D 0–0 A W 1–0 A
Barcelona L 0–2 A L 2–5 H
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins3 draws3 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 22 Mar 2026Athletic Club2–1Real Betis
  • 31 Aug 2025Real Betis1–2Athletic Club
  • 2 Feb 2025Real Betis2–2Athletic Club
  • 3 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–1Real Betis
  • 25 Feb 2024Real Betis3–1Athletic Club
  • 27 Aug 2023Athletic Club4–2Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 1.001.78
Conceded per game 0.861.56
Match goals 1.863.33
Over 1.5 71%56%
Over 2.5 29%44%
Over 3.5 14%33%
Both teams scored 29%56%
Clean sheets 57%44%
Failed to score 43%0%
Games79
Athletic ClubReal BetisForecast
Scored per game 1.002.10
Conceded per game 1.301.80
Match goals 2.303.90
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 30%60%
Over 3.5 20%50%
Both teams scored 40%70%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won6.144.78
Corners conceded4.436.44
Match total10.5711.229.91
Over 8.557% 4/778% 7/9
Over 9.557% 4/767% 6/9
Over 10.557% 4/756% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.291.67
Opponent cards1.862.67
Match total4.154.344.73
Over 3.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 4.543% 3/756% 5/9
Athletic ClubReal BetisLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.90
Corners conceded4.565.90
Match total10.4510.809.91
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 10.556% 5/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.801.90
Opponent cards1.702.60
Match total3.504.504.73
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Real Betis9 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
8 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Real Sociedad Dec 2016:00 Athletic Club Real Betis Dec 2016:00 Valencia Espanyol Dec 2016:00 Sevilla Racing Santander Dec 2016:00 Celta Vigo Atletico Madrid Dec 2016:00 Alaves Elche Dec 2016:00 Deportivo La Coruna Real Madrid Dec 2016:00 Getafe Levante Dec 2016:00 Osasuna Villarreal Dec 2016:00 Rayo Vallecano Malaga Dec 2016:00