Alaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Alaves had 8.2 days of rest, Real Madrid 7 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days8.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 3
Alaves18%
Draw24%
Real Madrid59%
Alaves18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Alaves17%
Draw24%
Real Madrid59%
Alaves13%
Draw21%
Real Madrid66%
Alaves18%
Draw23%
Real Madrid59%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
Alaves
Real Madrid
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
48
AttackIn forecast
89
55
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlavesReal Madrid
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
60%
Scored inContext
88%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
11.20
ShotsContext
19.31
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.94
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
11.69
66%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
3.08
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.80
Shots allowedContext
9.63
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
3.92
BlocksContext
3.36
2.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
70%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
416
PassesContext
577
336
Accurate passesContext
517
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.14
15.93
FoulsContext
10.19
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
18.00
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
26%
On target shareContext
34%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
69%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
3.63
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.60
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.25
BlocksContext
2.80
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
63%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
418
PassesContext
520
341
Accurate passesContext
460
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.01
15.80
FoulsContext
9.30
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alaves
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel284 km1,792 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alaves |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,792 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
8Antonio Blanco
21A. Rebbach
4Denis Suárez
19Pablo Ibáñez
20Calebe
15L. Boyé
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
40Víctor Valdepeñas
22A. Rüdiger
17Raúl Asencio
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
11Rodrygo
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alaves+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Madrid-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Alaves · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.88
Real Madrid · Away
2.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Alaves | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Valencia | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 2–5 A |
| Levante | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 39 · 1.38 per game | 27 of 39 · 2.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Alaves wins0 draws7 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Alaves0–1Real Madrid
- 24 Sep 2024Real Madrid3–2Alaves
- 14 May 2024Real Madrid5–0Alaves
- 21 Dec 2023Alaves0–1Real Madrid
- 19 Feb 2022Real Madrid3–0Alaves
- 14 Aug 2021Alaves1–4Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alaves | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 1.87 | 2.94 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 47% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Alaves | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alaves | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.57 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.25 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Alaves | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 9.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.60 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 4.09
Red cards0.19league 0.28
Cards 5+39%league 45%
Fouls25.2league 24.6
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins39%league 48%
Alaves6 with this referee
Record0-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L26 Oct 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–13
- D30 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid1–12
- L14 Apr 24A · Granada CF0–22
- D24 Feb 24H · Mallorca1–10
- D2 Jan 24A · Real Sociedad1–14
Real MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alaves15 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Madrid16 games · scored 32 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
10
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
