Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alaves17.8%fair odds 5.63
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.24
Real Madrid58.6%fair odds 1.71
Expected goals0.92 – 1.85total 2.76
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alaves ↓ · Real Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alaves goals, columns Real Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.89
- 0–111.1%9.04
- 0–210.7%9.31
- 1–29.9%10.14
- 0–06.9%14.57
- 0–36.6%15.13
- 1–36.1%16.48
- 1–05.2%19.16
- 2–14.9%20.39
- 2–24.5%22.09
Winning margin
1.5%
Alaves by 3+
fair 65.17
4.5%
Alaves by 2
fair 22.15
11.7%
Alaves by 1
fair 8.53
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.24
24.1%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.14
18.3%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.48
16.2%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 6.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Alaves goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Real Madrid goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 17.8% | 18.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Real Madrid win | 58.6% | 58.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 55.0% | -2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.2% | 53.5% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Alaves | 0.92 | 0.97 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.85 | 1.91 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alaves win17.8%5.63
- Draw23.6%4.24
- Real Madrid win58.6%1.71
- Double chance Alaves or draw41.4%2.42
- Double chance Alaves or Real Madrid76.4%1.31
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw82.2%1.22
- Draw no bet Alaves23.3%4.30
- Draw no bet Real Madrid76.7%1.30
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.92
- Over 3.530.0%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.81
- Under 1.523.1%4.32
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes51.2%1.95
- No48.8%2.05
- Yes and over 2.539.9%2.51
- Alaves win and yes8.9%11.29
- Draw and yes16.7%5.98
- Real Madrid win and yes25.6%3.91
Team goals
- Alaves over 0.560.1%1.66
- Alaves over 1.523.4%4.27
- Alaves over 2.56.6%15.17
- Real Madrid over 0.584.2%1.19
- Real Madrid over 1.555.1%1.82
- Real Madrid over 2.528.2%3.55
- Alaves clean sheet15.8%6.34
- Real Madrid clean sheet39.9%2.51
- Alaves win to nil8.9%11.22
- Real Madrid win to nil33.1%3.03
Handicap
- Alaves −1.56.0%16.53
- Alaves −2.51.5%65.17
- Real Madrid +1.594.0%1.06
- Real Madrid +2.598.5%1.02
- Real Madrid −1.534.5%2.90
- Alaves +1.565.5%1.53
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored159
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right62.3%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 37.8% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 74 | 44.4% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.4% | 63.0% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.6% | 65.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 74.8% | 86.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 128 of 159 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5552 | 0.5533 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.3% | 42.9% |
| Favourite won | 58.6% | 58.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 128 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 159 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.