Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Alverca had 6.2 days of rest, Arouca 5.2 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca38%
Draw29%
Arouca33%
Alverca42%
Draw27%
Arouca31%
Alverca38%
Draw29%
Arouca33%
Alverca31%
Draw29%
Arouca40%
Alverca39%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 6.7
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Alverca
Arouca
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
38
AttackIn forecast
28
42
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaArouca
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.93
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
73%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.47
ShotsContext
10.07
3.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.21
64%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.53
Shots allowedContext
12.93
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.66
4.03
BlocksContext
3.89
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
68%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
358
PassesContext
395
288
Accurate passesContext
327
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.97
FoulsContext
13.33
13.37
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
10.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
37%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
63%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.22
BlocksContext
3.89
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
75%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
362
PassesContext
393
292
Accurate passesContext
326
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.40
FoulsContext
12.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,984 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Arouca
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel236 km141 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 5.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,984 km | 141 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
20Figueiredo
91Sandro Lima
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
4M. Rocha
28Tiago Esgaio
22E. van Ee
21T. Fukui
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
10Pablo Gozálbez
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Arouca · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-9
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 AL 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| AVS | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Tondela | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Points | 35 of 87 · 1.21 per game | 32 of 87 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alverca wins0 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 14 Dec 2025Arouca1–0Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.20 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 63% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 30% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Alverca | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 3.72 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 8.72 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 12/22 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.43 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 15/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Alverca | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 7.80 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.40 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 4.80
Red cards0.17league 0.24
Cards 5+83%league 57%
Fouls28.5league 26.8
Penalties0.67league 0.43
Home wins67%league 41%
Alverca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W4 Jan 26H · Famalicao1–02
Arouca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Feb 26A · Casa Pia2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca30 games · scored 32 · conceded 48
3
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
9
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
9
61-75
12
8
76-90
Arouca29 games · scored 38 · conceded 53
8
7
0-15
1
7
16-30
7
13
31-45
10
8
46-60
10
6
61-75
2
12
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
