Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alverca. Alverca had 8 days of rest, Estoril 7.1 and had to travel 38 km.
Away travel38 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alverca47%
Draw28%
Estoril25%
Alverca42%
Draw27%
Estoril31%
Alverca47%
Draw28%
Estoril25%
Alverca40%
Draw30%
Estoril31%
Alverca48%
Draw27%
Estoril25%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Alverca
Estoril
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
38
AttackIn forecast
21
42
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaEstoril
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.66
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
72%
Scored inContext
69%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
9.41
ShotsContext
11.03
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
38%
On target shareContext
35%
6.03
Shots in the boxContext
7.13
64%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.06
OffsidesContext
1.61
13.50
Shots allowedContext
11.69
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
4.16
BlocksContext
2.79
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
67%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
355
PassesContext
432
286
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.06
FoulsContext
12.66
13.53
Fouls sufferedContext
12.13
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
8.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
34%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
62%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.89
BlocksContext
2.56
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
366
PassesContext
440
296
Accurate passesContext
363
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.30
FoulsContext
13.90
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km506 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel38 km654 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 38 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 506 km | 654 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
82Diogo Spencer
6D. Gui
18Lincoln
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
26Rhaldney
91Sandro Lima
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
5A. Tsoungui
4Ferro
25F. Bacher
24Pedro Amaral
10J. Holsgrove
8Xeka
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-5
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.38
Estoril · Away
0.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-9
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 4–3 H |
| Nacional | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 4–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 AL 0–4 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| AVS | D 0–0 HW 3–1 A | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Tondela | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 38 of 93 · 1.23 per game | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alverca wins0 draws1 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Dec 2025Estoril4–1Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.66 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.28 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 63% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 31% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Alverca | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.42 | 4.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 9.28 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 4.60 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 17/32 | 81% 26/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Alverca | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 8.34 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 4.83
Red cards0.22league 0.24
Cards 5+22%league 57%
Fouls24.1league 26.8
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins56%league 41%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
Estoril1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Feb 26H · GIL Vicente3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca32 games · scored 34 · conceded 50
4
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
10
31-45
4
9
46-60
5
9
61-75
12
8
76-90
Estoril32 games · scored 52 · conceded 53
6
12
0-15
8
6
16-30
12
9
31-45
10
8
46-60
8
10
61-75
8
8
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
