Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Alverca had 6 days of rest, Estrela 6.1 and had to travel 23 km.
Away travel23 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alverca47%
Draw27%
Estrela26%
Alverca51%
Draw26%
Estrela24%
Alverca47%
Draw27%
Estrela26%
Alverca40%
Draw28%
Estrela32%
Alverca49%
Draw26%
Estrela26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
Alverca
Estrela
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
38
AttackIn forecast
24
42
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaEstrela
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
68%
Scored inContext
53%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
8.84
ShotsContext
10.53
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.61
39%
On target shareContext
33%
5.94
Shots in the boxContext
5.37
65%
Box shareContext
48%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.95
4.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.05
BlocksContext
3.50
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
64%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
355
PassesContext
340
286
Accurate passesContext
272
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.53
FoulsContext
14.21
13.63
Fouls sufferedContext
14.84
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.30
ShotsContext
9.50
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
37%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
68%
Box shareContext
47%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.80
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.50
BlocksContext
3.67
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
54%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
363
PassesContext
338
294
Accurate passesContext
269
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.61
12.00
FoulsContext
15.50
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km599 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel23 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 23 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 599 km | 15 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
18Lincoln
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
63A. Sola
10I. Stoica
28T. Moustier
19Paulo Moreira
17Jefferson Encada
9Rodrigo Pinho
7Leandro Antonetti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.40
Estrela · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | D 3–3 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 5–3 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Santa Clara | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alverca wins1 draws0 Estrela wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Aug 2025Estrela2–2Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 3.11 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 47% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 47% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Alverca | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.20 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.77 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.56 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 2.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.79 | |
| Match total | 4.95 | 5.58 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 10/19 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Alverca | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 2.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.86 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.63 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.20 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.08league 5.00
Red cards0.31league 0.29
Cards 5+58%league 59%
Fouls24.9league 27.2
Penalties0.19league 0.47
Home wins46%league 40%
Alverca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Aug 25H · Benfica1–24
Estrela4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 Mar 25A · Moreirense1–14
- L4 Feb 24A · Estoril0–12
- W8 Oct 23A · Casa Pia1–01
- W25 Aug 23H · Estoril2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca19 games · scored 19 · conceded 33
6
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
3
76-90
Estrela18 games · scored 18 · conceded 33
1
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
2
9
46-60
5
6
61-75
1
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
1
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
