Alverca vs Guimaraes – 28 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 28 · 15:30 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 16th · 4 pts · 6 played LDLWL

2–0Full time

Guimaraes 8th · 8 pts · 6 played WLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 25). Alverca had 8 days of rest, Guimaraes 7.8 and had to travel 290 km.

Away travel290 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Alverca30%

Draw28%

Guimaraes42%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.39

Alverca31%

Draw27%

Guimaraes42%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.47

Alverca30%

Draw28%

Guimaraes42%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.39

Alverca24%

Draw27%

Guimaraes50%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.56

Alverca31%

Draw27%

Guimaraes42%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.47

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Alverca

Guimaraes

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

38 AttackIn forecast 28

42 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

Guimaraes

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

83% Scored inContext 67%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

7.67 ShotsContext 11.83

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

44% On target shareContext 30%

4.83 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

63% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.33 Shots allowedContext 12.17

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

73% Save rateContext 70%

43% PossessionIn forecast 49%

331 PassesContext 365

261 Accurate passesContext 294

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.78

14.67 FoulsContext 13.50

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

83% Scored inContext 70%

17% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.67 ShotsContext 12.80

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

44% On target shareContext 27%

4.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

63% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.38

12.33 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.50 BlocksContext 2.44

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

73% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 52%

331 PassesContext 393

261 Accurate passesContext 324

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.67 FoulsContext 14.20

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 6 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,909 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel290 km619 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	290 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,909 km	619 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

55Francisco Chissumba 8Alexsandro Amorim 21S. Abdulai 2Zoubdi

20Figueiredo 9M. Milovanović 18Lincoln

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Juan Castillo(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

6Matija Mitrović 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 88M. Nogueira 18Telmo Arcanjo

7Nélson Oliveira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Guimaraes · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Alverca	Guimaraes
Estrela	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
Moreirense	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.17
Conceded per game	1.83	1.50
Match goals	2.83	2.67	2.53
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	83%	33%	46%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

	Alverca	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.17
Conceded per game	1.83	1.50
Match goals	2.83	2.67	2.53
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	83%	33%	46%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	3.50
Corners conceded	5.00	3.50
Match total	8.25	7.00	9.10
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.83	2.50
Opponent cards	3.83	3.00
Match total	6.66	5.50	5.15
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6

	Alverca	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	3.80
Match total	8.25	8.80	9.10
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.83	2.70
Opponent cards	3.83	2.80
Match total	6.66	5.50	5.15
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.75league 5.08

Red cards0.25league 0.22

Cards 5+75%league 63%

Fouls25.8league 28.2

Penalties0.25league 0.42

Home wins25%league 36%

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

Guimaraes

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.