Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 25). Alverca had 12.9 days of rest, Moreirense 6 and had to travel 283 km.
Away travel283 kmRest days12.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Alverca37%
Draw28%
Moreirense35%
Alverca38%
Draw27%
Moreirense35%
Alverca37%
Draw28%
Moreirense35%
Alverca30%
Draw28%
Moreirense42%
Alverca38%
Draw27%
Moreirense35%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 78
Team strength
Alverca
Moreirense
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
38
AttackIn forecast
17
42
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaMoreirense
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
71%
Scored inContext
76%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
8.82
ShotsContext
9.59
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
41%
On target shareContext
37%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.53
65%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.69
13.12
Shots allowedContext
12.35
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
4.06
BlocksContext
3.13
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
67%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
355
PassesContext
418
286
Accurate passesContext
348
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.41
FoulsContext
14.18
14.47
Fouls sufferedContext
14.53
2.41
Yellow cardsContext
2.65
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
9.70
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
41%
On target shareContext
39%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
68%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.30
BlocksContext
2.80
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
375
PassesContext
417
305
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.80
FoulsContext
14.20
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel283 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
91Sandro Lima
18Lincoln
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
3Michel
76Dinis Pinto
21Rodri Alonso
25Afonso Assis
10Kiko Bondoso
11Alan
2Diogo Travassos
9Luís Semedo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.44
Moreirense · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 24 of 48 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Alverca wins0 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Aug 2025Moreirense2–1Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 2.82 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 47% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 24% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Alverca | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.77 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 3.81 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.12 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 6% 1/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 2.76 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 5.18 | 4.88 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Alverca | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 7.30 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.80 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.96league 5.03
Red cards0.24league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 59%
Fouls29.1league 27.3
Penalties0.29league 0.44
Home wins40%league 39%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
Moreirense2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Feb 25A · Famalicao0–22
- L20 Jan 24A · FC Porto0–53
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca17 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
2
76-90
Moreirense17 games · scored 24 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
