Alverca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alverca36.9%fair odds 2.71
Draw28.3%fair odds 3.53
Moreirense34.8%fair odds 2.87
Expected goals1.27 – 1.23total 2.50
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Moreirense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alverca ↓ · Moreirense → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alverca goals, columns Moreirense goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.41
- 1–09.7%10.26
- 0–19.4%10.66
- 0–08.9%11.28
- 2–18.2%12.26
- 1–27.9%12.69
- 2–06.6%15.07
- 0–26.2%16.16
- 2–25.0%19.94
- 3–13.5%28.88
Winning margin
5.7%
Alverca by 3+
fair 17.57
10.9%
Alverca by 2
fair 9.21
20.3%
Alverca by 1
fair 4.92
28.3%
Draw
fair 3.53
19.6%
Moreirense by 1
fair 5.10
10.1%
Moreirense by 2
fair 9.88
5.1%
Moreirense by 3+
fair 19.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Alverca goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Moreirense goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 36.9% | 37.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Moreirense win | 34.8% | 34.8% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 50.0% | -4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 55.0% | -3.4 pp |
| Expected goals Alverca | 1.27 | 1.37 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Moreirense | 1.23 | 1.30 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alverca win36.9%2.71
- Draw28.3%3.53
- Moreirense win34.8%2.87
- Double chance Alverca or draw65.2%1.53
- Double chance Alverca or Moreirense71.7%1.40
- Double chance Moreirense or draw63.1%1.58
- Draw no bet Alverca51.5%1.94
- Draw no bet Moreirense48.5%2.06
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.572.0%1.39
- Over 2.545.7%2.19
- Over 3.524.3%4.12
- Over 4.510.9%9.16
- Under 1.528.0%3.57
- Under 2.554.3%1.84
- Under 3.575.7%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.538.1%2.62
- Alverca win and yes16.5%6.06
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Moreirense win and yes15.7%6.39
Team goals
- Alverca over 0.572.0%1.39
- Alverca over 1.536.4%2.75
- Alverca over 2.513.7%7.31
- Moreirense over 0.570.8%1.41
- Moreirense over 1.534.8%2.87
- Moreirense over 2.512.7%7.88
- Alverca clean sheet29.2%3.42
- Moreirense clean sheet28.0%3.57
- Alverca win to nil20.4%4.91
- Moreirense win to nil19.1%5.23
Handicap
- Alverca −1.516.5%6.04
- Alverca −2.55.7%17.57
- Moreirense +1.583.5%1.20
- Moreirense +2.594.3%1.06
- Moreirense −1.515.2%6.59
- Alverca +1.584.8%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored155
Favourite won58.1%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.541
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right57.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 37.7% | 34.6% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 44.9% | 49.1% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.4% | 60.6% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.8% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 75.6% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 126 of 155 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5377 | 0.5213 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| Favourite won | 58.7% | 58.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 126 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓GIL Vicente 2–1 Nacional51·26·23
- ✓Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia82·13·5
- ✓Moreirense 1–0 Tondela56·25·19
- ✗Nacional 3–3 Santa Clara41·28·30
- ✗Alverca 1–0 Famalicao34·28·38
- ✓Santa Clara 0–1 FC Porto15·22·63
- ✓Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia45·28·28
- ✓AVS 0–2 Moreirense25·27·47
- ✗Estrela 3–3 SC Braga18·24·58
- ✓Benfica 3–1 Estoril74·17·9
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 155 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.