Alverca vs SC Braga – 17 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 17 · 18:00 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo

Alverca 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–3Full time

SC Braga 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 27). Alverca had 6.9 days of rest, SC Braga 6.9 and had to travel 300 km.

Away travel300 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Alverca23%

Draw25%

SC Braga52%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.67

Alverca24%

Draw26%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67

Alverca23%

Draw26%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.65

Alverca18%

Draw23%

SC Braga59%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.88

Alverca23%

Draw25%

SC Braga51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.70

Over 2.5 51% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 50

Team strength

Alverca

SC Braga

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

38 AttackIn forecast 42

42 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Alverca

SC Braga

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

— xGVia Att/Def 1.36

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

— Goals minus xGContext +0.44

— Scored inContext 100%

— Clean sheetsContext 30%

— ShotsContext 13.25

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88

— On target shareContext 37%

— Shots in the boxContext 7.50

— Box shareContext 54%

— ConversionContext 13%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

— Shots allowedContext 7.25

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13

— BlocksContext 1.83

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

— Save rateContext 76%

— PossessionIn forecast 59%

— PassesContext 519

— Accurate passesContext 442

— Pass accuracyContext 85%

— Team ratingContext 7.07

— FoulsContext 14.63

— Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

— Yellow cardsContext 1.50

— Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alverca

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km566 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel300 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Alverca	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	300 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	566 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

12Isaac James 16Tomás Mendes 8Alexsandro Amorim 22Gonçalo Esteves

10Chiquinho 9M. Milovanović 11Cedric Nuozzi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

SC Braga Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1L. Horníček(G)

5Leonardo Lelo 26B. Arrey-Mbi 15Paulo Oliveira 6Vitor Carvalho

21Ricardo Horta 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 50D. Rodrigues 7R. Fernandes

18Pau Víctor 9A. El Ouazzani

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Alverca Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Alverca-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
SC Braga+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Alverca · Home No home games yet this season.

SC Braga · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Alverca	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.71
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Alverca	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.71
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Alverca	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.00
Corners conceded	6.00	2.00
Match total	8.00	7.00	9.33
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.83
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Alverca	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.83
Corners conceded	6.00	2.83
Match total	8.00	8.66	9.33
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.70
Opponent cards	3.00	2.10
Match total	4.00	3.80	4.83
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.06league 5.00

Red cards0.28league 0.08

Cards 5+48%league 62%

Fouls25.5league 29.6

Penalties0.16league 0.38

Home wins46%league 46%

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Braga2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D17 May 25H · Benfica1–14
W5 Jan 23A · Santa Clara4–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.