Alverca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alverca22.8%fair odds 4.38
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
SC Braga51.7%fair odds 1.94
Expected goals1.04 – 1.67total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alverca ↓ · SC Braga → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alverca goals, columns SC Braga goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.23
- 0–110.5%9.51
- 1–29.7%10.35
- 0–29.3%10.73
- 0–07.3%13.78
- 1–06.3%15.92
- 2–16.0%16.72
- 1–35.4%18.55
- 0–35.2%19.24
- 2–25.0%19.97
Winning margin
2.4%
Alverca by 3+
fair 41.21
6.1%
Alverca by 2
fair 16.28
14.3%
Alverca by 1
fair 7.01
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
23.4%
SC Braga by 1
fair 4.27
16.0%
SC Braga by 2
fair 6.24
12.2%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 8.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Alverca goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
SC Braga goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 22.8% | 23.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.2 pp |
| SC Braga win | 51.7% | 51.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 52.3% | -1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.1% | 54.3% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Alverca | 1.04 | 1.07 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 1.67 | 1.70 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alverca win22.8%4.38
- Draw25.5%3.92
- SC Braga win51.7%1.94
- Double chance Alverca or draw48.3%2.07
- Double chance Alverca or SC Braga74.5%1.34
- Double chance SC Braga or draw77.2%1.30
- Draw no bet Alverca30.6%3.26
- Draw no bet SC Braga69.4%1.44
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.9%1.96
- Over 3.528.8%3.47
- Over 4.513.9%7.21
- Under 1.524.1%4.16
- Under 2.549.1%2.04
- Under 3.571.2%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes53.1%1.88
- No46.9%2.13
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.44
- Alverca win and yes11.3%8.81
- Draw and yes18.2%5.48
- SC Braga win and yes23.5%4.26
Team goals
- Alverca over 0.564.5%1.55
- Alverca over 1.527.8%3.60
- Alverca over 2.58.7%11.47
- SC Braga over 0.581.3%1.23
- SC Braga over 1.549.9%2.01
- SC Braga over 2.523.6%4.24
- Alverca clean sheet18.7%5.33
- SC Braga clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Alverca win to nil11.5%8.71
- SC Braga win to nil28.2%3.55
Handicap
- Alverca −1.58.6%11.67
- Alverca −2.52.4%41.21
- SC Braga +1.591.4%1.09
- SC Braga +2.597.6%1.02
- SC Braga −1.528.3%3.54
- Alverca +1.571.7%1.39
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored13
Favourite won76.9%
Avg chance given to result47.6%
1X2 Brier0.454
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right61.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 43.9% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 54.3% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 66.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 72.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 13 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4426 | 0.4290 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional48·27·25
- ✓Estrela 0–1 Benfica10·18·73
- ✓Guimaraes 3–2 Estoril55·24·20
- ✓Tondela 0–1 Famalicao31·28·41
- ✓AVS 0–2 Casa Pia34·29·37
- ✓FC Porto 3–0 Guimaraes55·24·21
- ✗Estoril 1–1 Estrela54·25·20
- ✓SC Braga 3–0 Tondela70·19·11
- ✓Moreirense 2–1 Alverca43·28·30
- ✓Famalicao 3–0 Santa Clara47·27·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 13 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.