Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 19). Alverca had 12.1 days of rest, Tondela 12.2 and had to travel 198 km.
Away travel198 kmRest days12.1 · 12.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alverca48%
Draw28%
Tondela25%
Alverca49%
Draw26%
Tondela25%
Alverca48%
Draw28%
Tondela25%
Alverca41%
Draw29%
Tondela31%
Alverca49%
Draw26%
Tondela25%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Team strength
Alverca
Tondela
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
38
AttackIn forecast
16
42
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaTondela
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
75%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.75
ShotsContext
10.75
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
42%
On target shareContext
33%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
65%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
1.33
OffsidesContext
4.25
11.75
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.75
BlocksContext
3.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
53%
Save rateContext
64%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
321
PassesContext
299
253
Accurate passesContext
239
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.50
FoulsContext
11.25
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
75%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.75
ShotsContext
10.75
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
42%
On target shareContext
33%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
65%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
1.33
OffsidesContext
4.25
11.75
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.75
BlocksContext
3.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
53%
Save rateContext
64%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
321
PassesContext
299
253
Accurate passesContext
239
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.50
FoulsContext
11.25
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel198 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 12.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
21S. Abdulai
8Alexsandro Amorim
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
9M. Milovanović
18Lincoln
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
17Ivan Cavaleiro
16Rony Lopes
48Tiago Manso
11Y. Rodriguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Tondela · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Alverca | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 75% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 2.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 9.25 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 3.25 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Alverca | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 2.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 9.25 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 3.25 | 5.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Alverca4 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Tondela4 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Alverca4 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Tondela4 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
