Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
4th · 35 pts · 19 played
WWLWD
First leg0–1
1–2Full time
Charleroi
12th · 21 pts · 19 played
LDLDD
Our take
Anderlecht were clear favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). Anderlecht had 5.1 days of rest, Charleroi 7 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Anderlecht62%
Draw22%
Charleroi16%
Anderlecht62%
Draw22%
Charleroi16%
Anderlecht62%
Draw22%
Charleroi16%
Anderlecht55%
Draw25%
Charleroi21%
Anderlecht62%
Draw22%
Charleroi16%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 36
Team strength
AnderlechtCharleroi
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
37
AttackIn forecast
43
52
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtCharleroi
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
79%
Scored inContext
74%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.68
ShotsContext
10.63
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
33%
On target shareContext
38%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
59%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.26
Shots allowedContext
11.26
3.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.61
2.95
BlocksContext
3.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
66%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
432
PassesContext
366
351
Accurate passesContext
292
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.26
FoulsContext
11.05
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
2.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
11.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
30%
On target shareContext
39%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
58%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.00
BlocksContext
3.30
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
412
PassesContext
364
331
Accurate passesContext
289
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.90
FoulsContext
9.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 84 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.7 | 22.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
79A. Maamar
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-1
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.80
Charleroi · Away
0.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Gent | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 35 of 54 · 1.94 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Anderlecht wins0 draws1 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 24 Oct 2025Charleroi1–0Anderlecht
- 11 Feb 2024Charleroi1–3Anderlecht
- 27 Aug 2023Anderlecht2–1Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.42 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 42% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Anderlecht | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.16 | 4.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.05 | 9.31 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 15/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.74 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 3.58 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 12/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Anderlecht | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.79
Red cards0.28league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls22.0league 22.8
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins50%league 41%
Anderlecht5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W5 Oct 25H · Standard Liege1–03
- W18 Feb 24H · St. Truiden4–11
- D21 Jan 24A · OH Leuven1–12
- D3 Sep 23A · Genk1–16
- L28 Jul 23A · Union St. Gilloise0–23
Charleroi5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Nov 25H · RAAL La Louvière0–00
- L28 Sep 25H · KV Mechelen0–20
- W1 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–04
- W25 Nov 23H · KVC Westerlo3–23
- L16 Sep 23A · Club Brugge KV2–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht19 games · scored 27 · conceded 20
5
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Charleroi19 games · scored 21 · conceded 25
3
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
