Anderlecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Anderlecht
3rd · 28 pts · 15 played
DLWWW
First leg0–2
1–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 36 pts · 15 played
WWWDW
Anderlecht37.1%fair odds 2.69
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Union St. Gilloise35.6%fair odds 2.81
Expected goals1.35 – 1.32total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Anderlecht ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Anderlecht goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.69
- 1–08.7%11.47
- 0–18.5%11.79
- 2–18.3%11.99
- 1–28.1%12.30
- 0–07.6%13.17
- 2–06.3%15.79
- 0–26.0%16.62
- 2–25.5%18.21
- 3–13.8%26.61
Winning margin
6.2%
Anderlecht by 3+
fair 16.19
11.0%
Anderlecht by 2
fair 9.06
19.9%
Anderlecht by 1
fair 5.02
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
19.4%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 5.15
10.5%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 9.54
5.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 17.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Anderlecht goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 37.1% | 36.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 35.6% | 36.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 50.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 55.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Anderlecht | 1.35 | 1.35 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.32 | 1.33 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Anderlecht win37.1%2.69
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Union St. Gilloise win35.6%2.81
- Double chance Anderlecht or draw64.4%1.55
- Double chance Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise72.7%1.38
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw62.9%1.59
- Draw no bet Anderlecht51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.9%2.01
- Over 3.527.9%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.55
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.1%1.99
- Under 3.572.1%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Anderlecht win and yes17.9%5.57
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes17.3%5.80
Team goals
- Anderlecht over 0.574.1%1.35
- Anderlecht over 1.539.1%2.56
- Anderlecht over 2.515.5%6.46
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.573.2%1.37
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.537.9%2.64
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.514.7%6.81
- Anderlecht clean sheet26.8%3.73
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet25.9%3.86
- Anderlecht win to nil19.2%5.21
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil18.3%5.47
Handicap
- Anderlecht −1.517.2%5.81
- Anderlecht −2.56.2%16.19
- Union St. Gilloise +1.582.8%1.21
- Union St. Gilloise +2.593.8%1.07
- Union St. Gilloise −1.516.1%6.20
- Anderlecht +1.583.9%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won45.2%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right52.4%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.9% | 35.8% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 55.1% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 88 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6223 | 0.6172 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.1% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 44.3% | 46.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 88 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.