Anderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Anderlecht
3rd · 28 pts · 15 played
DLWWW
First leg0–2
1–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 36 pts · 15 played
WWWDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 50). Anderlecht had 7 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 8.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Anderlecht37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Anderlecht37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Anderlecht37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Anderlecht30%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise43%
Anderlecht37%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 32
Team strength
AnderlechtUnion St. Gilloise
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
37
AttackIn forecast
62
52
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AnderlechtUnion St. Gilloise
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
0.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.53
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
87%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
53%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.53
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.93
33%
On target shareContext
38%
8.87
Shots in the boxContext
12.07
59%
Box shareContext
77%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.08
10.87
Shots allowedContext
8.87
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.80
BlocksContext
2.60
2.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
441
PassesContext
423
361
Accurate passesContext
345
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.80
FoulsContext
12.73
10.53
Fouls sufferedContext
9.13
2.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.80
ShotsContext
14.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
32%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
58%
Box shareContext
74%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.30
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.50
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
75%
Save rateContext
53%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
439
PassesContext
361
359
Accurate passesContext
290
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.20
FoulsContext
14.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Anderlecht |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 84 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
55M. Kana
54K. Sardella
7I. Camara
74N. De Cat
24E. Llansana
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
30R. Florucz
12P. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Anderlecht · Home
2.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.88
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| St. Truiden | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Gent | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Antwerp | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Dender | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 2–3 H | W 4–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 5–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 28 of 42 · 2.00 per game | 33 of 42 · 2.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Anderlecht wins1 draws2 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 31 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Anderlecht
- 28 Jan 2024Anderlecht2–2Union St. Gilloise
- 28 Jul 2023Union St. Gilloise2–0Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.87 | 0.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.60 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 53% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.40 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.27 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.54 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 13/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.93 | 4.46 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Anderlecht | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.70 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.50 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.84
Red cards0.25league 0.20
Cards 5+53%league 43%
Fouls23.2league 23.1
Penalties0.09league 0.29
Home wins47%league 42%
Anderlecht2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Dec 23H · Genk2–11
- W28 Oct 23H · OH Leuven5–11
Union St. Gilloise3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Sep 25A · Genk2–14
- D24 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- W18 Feb 24A · Kortrijk3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Anderlecht15 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Union St. Gilloise15 games · scored 31 · conceded 8
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
9
4
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
