Ligue 1 Gameweek 16 Sat, Jan 16 · 16:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Angers 15th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel264 kmRest days14 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Angers—%
Draw—%
Paris Saint Germain—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Angers)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Angers and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AngersParis Saint Germain
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
22 AttackIn forecast 91
12 DefenceIn forecast 83
16 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AngersParis Saint Germain
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.65
2.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
71% Scored inContext 100%
29% Clean sheetsContext 14%
13.29 ShotsContext 20.57
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14
23% On target shareContext 35%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.71
68% Box shareContext 56%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.20
17.29 Shots allowedContext 10.86
6.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.86 BlocksContext 2.17
4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
72% Save rateContext 83%
49% PossessionIn forecast 68%
420 PassesContext 708
353 Accurate passesContext 637
84% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.73 Team ratingContext 7.03
10.57 FoulsContext 5.71
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
80% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.10 ShotsContext 21.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
25% On target shareContext 36%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
68% Box shareContext 56%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.33
17.10 Shots allowedContext 11.90
6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.50 BlocksContext 3.22
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
73% Save rateContext 78%
46% PossessionIn forecast 67%
394 PassesContext 702
328 Accurate passesContext 632
83% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.71 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.00 FoulsContext 7.00
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km914 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Marseille2–51.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Rennes1–21.1 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel264 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Angers Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Ligue 1 2026-2027, 2 Jan12.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km264 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways914 km358 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one74.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1A. Lopes(G)
27L. Rao-Lisoa 34Maël Gernigon 24E. Biumla 2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen 14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Angers Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAngersParis Saint Germain
Marseille L 2–5 H W 2–1 A
Stade Brestois 29 L 1–5 A W 1–0 A
Rennes L 1–2 H D 2–2 A
Lille L 0–2 H D 2–2 A
Points0 of 12 · 0.00 per game8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Angers wins0 draws8 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.25 Over 2.563% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%
  • 25 Apr 2026Angers0–3Paris Saint Germain
  • 22 Aug 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Angers
  • 5 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Angers
  • 9 Nov 2024Angers2–4Paris Saint Germain
  • 21 Apr 2023Angers1–2Paris Saint Germain
  • 11 Jan 2023Paris Saint Germain2–0Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AngersParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.292.00
Conceded per game 2.141.29
Match goals 3.433.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 57%86%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 57%86%
Clean sheets 29%14%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games77
AngersParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.202.50
Conceded per game 2.001.40
Match goals 3.203.90
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 50%90%
Over 3.5 40%60%
Both teams scored 70%90%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AngersParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.434.75
Corners conceded5.713.25
Match total12.148.009.63
Over 8.586% 6/750% 2/4
Over 9.571% 5/725% 1/4
Over 10.557% 4/70% 0/4
Cards
Cards1.711.00
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.283.433.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/729% 2/7
AngersParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.57
Corners conceded5.564.14
Match total11.569.719.63
Over 8.589% 8/971% 5/7
Over 9.567% 6/943% 3/7
Over 10.544% 4/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.901.00
Opponent cards1.702.30
Match total3.603.303.47
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Angers7 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Paris Saint Germain Jan 1616:00 Lyon Lorient Jan 1616:00 Marseille Lille Jan 1616:00 Nice LE Havre Jan 1616:00 Monaco Stade Brestois 29 Jan 1616:00 Rennes Lens Jan 1616:00 Strasbourg Le Mans Jan 1616:00 Auxerre Estac Troyes Jan 1616:00 Paris FC Toulouse Jan 1616:00