Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel831 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Marseille—%
Draw—%
Lille—%
Weather (Marseille)
Forecast from 1 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Marseille and Lille. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Insight
Lille
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Marseille
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Lille
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
MarseilleLille
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
48
AttackIn forecast
42
46
DefenceIn forecast
60
41
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLille
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
71%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
13.14
ShotsContext
12.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
38%
On target shareContext
46%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
62%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.86
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
4.83
BlocksContext
3.50
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
73%
Save rateContext
80%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
587
PassesContext
480
521
Accurate passesContext
417
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.71
FoulsContext
11.57
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
10.50
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
38%
On target shareContext
42%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.11
16.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.78
BlocksContext
4.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
547
PassesContext
480
481
Accurate passesContext
417
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.20
FoulsContext
10.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
LLWLW
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,900 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Lille
WLWLD
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel831 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Ligue 1 2026-2027, 2 Jan | 14Ligue 1 2026-2027, 2 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 831 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,900 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Lille
Last XI · not confirmed
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud
23T. Nianzou
3N. Ngoy
38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau
21B. André
7D. Bakwa
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lille
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Lille · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 5–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Estac Troyes | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Marseille wins4 draws5 Lille wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 22 Mar 2026Marseille1–2Lille
- 5 Dec 2025Lille1–0Marseille
- 4 May 2025Lille1–1Marseille
- 14 Dec 2024Marseille1–1Lille
- 5 Apr 2024Lille3–1Marseille
- 4 Nov 2023Marseille0–0Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Marseille | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.66 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Marseille | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Marseille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Lille7 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
