Ligue 1 Gameweek 15 Sun, Jan 3 · 19:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Lens 8th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel179 kmRest days22.2 · 22.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Lens—%
Draw—%
Paris Saint Germain—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lens)

Forecast from 19 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lens and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LensParis Saint Germain
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
56 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
63 AttackIn forecast 91
53 DefenceIn forecast 83
51 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LensParis Saint Germain
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
2.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.65
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
86% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.71 ShotsContext 20.57
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14
41% On target shareContext 35%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 11.71
74% Box shareContext 56%
14% ConversionContext 10%
1.71 OffsidesContext 3.20
11.29 Shots allowedContext 10.86
4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
2.67 BlocksContext 2.17
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
71% Save rateContext 83%
51% PossessionIn forecast 68%
487 PassesContext 708
418 Accurate passesContext 637
86% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.03
11.57 FoulsContext 5.71
13.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.25 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
80% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.40 ShotsContext 21.50
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
37% On target shareContext 36%
10.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
70% Box shareContext 56%
13% ConversionContext 12%
1.56 OffsidesContext 3.33
12.30 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.44 BlocksContext 3.22
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
71% Save rateContext 78%
52% PossessionIn forecast 67%
474 PassesContext 702
405 Accurate passesContext 632
85% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.80 FoulsContext 7.00
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens
Rest22.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest22.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lens Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match22.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Dec22.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km179 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one12.812.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
40R. Risser(G)
20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lens Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
2.33
Conceded
1.33
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLensParis Saint Germain
Monaco L 1–2 A L 1–2 H
Le Mans D 2–2 A W 3–1 H
Strasbourg L 1–2 A W 3–1 A
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Lens wins2 draws7 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.80 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%
  • 13 May 2026Lens0–2Paris Saint Germain
  • 14 Sep 2025Paris Saint Germain2–0Lens
  • 18 Jan 2025Lens1–2Paris Saint Germain
  • 2 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain1–0Lens
  • 14 Jan 2024Lens0–2Paris Saint Germain
  • 26 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LensParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 2.002.00
Conceded per game 1.571.29
Match goals 3.573.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 86%86%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 86%86%
Clean sheets 0%14%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
LensParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 2.102.50
Conceded per game 1.501.40
Match goals 3.603.90
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%90%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 70%90%
Clean sheets 10%10%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LensParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.334.75
Corners conceded4.173.25
Match total10.508.009.63
Over 8.5100% 6/650% 2/4
Over 9.583% 5/625% 1/4
Over 10.550% 3/60% 0/4
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.573.433.47
Over 3.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
LensParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.785.57
Corners conceded5.894.14
Match total12.679.719.63
Over 8.5100% 9/971% 5/7
Over 9.578% 7/943% 3/7
Over 10.556% 5/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.101.00
Opponent cards1.302.30
Match total3.403.303.47
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lens7 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2 0-15
1 16-30
4 3 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 3 76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 3 31-45
6 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Lille Strasbourg Jan 216:00 Monaco Nice Jan 216:00 Toulouse Angers Jan 216:00 Lorient Auxerre Jan 216:00 Stade Brestois 29 Marseille Jan 216:00 Estac Troyes Rennes Jan 216:00 Paris FC LE Havre Jan 216:00 Le Mans Lyon Jan 216:00 Lens Paris Saint Germain Jan 319:45