Toulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel320 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Toulouse—%
Draw—%
Marseille—%
Weather (Toulouse)
Forecast from 16 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Toulouse and Marseille. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Marseille
+0.50
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.83xG against1.33
-
Trend
Toulouse
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Toulouse
+0.33
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.39xG against1.06
-
Trend
Marseille
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Marseille
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Marseille
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Toulouse
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
ToulouseMarseille
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
45
AttackIn forecast
48
49
DefenceIn forecast
46
54
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ToulouseMarseille
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
71%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.57
ShotsContext
13.14
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
65%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.43
Shots allowedContext
15.86
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.00
BlocksContext
4.83
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
65%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
500
PassesContext
587
430
Accurate passesContext
521
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.43
FoulsContext
10.71
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.86
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
62%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.33
BlocksContext
4.78
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
428
PassesContext
547
366
Accurate passesContext
481
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.60
FoulsContext
11.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Toulouse
LDWDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Marseille
LLWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel320 km1,597 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Toulouse |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,121 km | 1,597 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Toulouse
Last XI · not confirmed
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Marseille
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Toulouse
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Marseille
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Toulouse · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Marseille · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Toulouse | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Toulouse wins3 draws5 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 7 Mar 2026Toulouse0–1Marseille
- 29 Nov 2025Marseille2–2Toulouse
- 6 Apr 2025Marseille3–2Toulouse
- 31 Aug 2024Toulouse1–3Marseille
- 21 Apr 2024Toulouse2–2Marseille
- 17 Sep 2023Marseille0–0Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Toulouse | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.43 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Toulouse | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Toulouse | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 8.72 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.86 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Toulouse | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.20 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Marseille7 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
