Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antwerp28.2%fair odds 3.55
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.15
Charleroi47.7%fair odds 2.10
Expected goals1.35 – 1.81total 3.16
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antwerp ↓ · Charleroi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antwerp goals, columns Charleroi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.15
- 1–29.4%10.66
- 0–17.1%14.00
- 2–17.0%14.28
- 0–27.0%14.38
- 2–26.3%15.80
- 1–35.7%17.70
- 1–05.2%19.25
- 0–04.8%20.80
- 0–34.2%23.88
Winning margin
4.3%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 23.04
8.2%
Antwerp by 2
fair 12.25
15.7%
Antwerp by 1
fair 6.37
24.1%
Draw
fair 4.15
21.2%
Charleroi by 1
fair 4.71
14.6%
Charleroi by 2
fair 6.83
11.9%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 8.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Antwerp goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Charleroi goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 28.2% | 28.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.1% | 24.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Charleroi win | 47.7% | 47.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 60.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.5% | 62.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.35 | 1.35 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.81 | 1.78 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antwerp win28.2%3.55
- Draw24.1%4.15
- Charleroi win47.7%2.10
- Double chance Antwerp or draw52.3%1.91
- Double chance Antwerp or Charleroi75.9%1.32
- Double chance Charleroi or draw71.8%1.39
- Draw no bet Antwerp37.1%2.69
- Draw no bet Charleroi62.9%1.59
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.9%1.21
- Over 2.561.1%1.64
- Over 3.538.8%2.58
- Over 4.521.2%4.72
- Under 1.517.1%5.83
- Under 2.538.9%2.57
- Under 3.561.2%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes62.5%1.60
- No37.5%2.66
- Yes and over 2.551.5%1.94
- Antwerp win and yes16.6%6.03
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Charleroi win and yes26.6%3.76
Team goals
- Antwerp over 0.574.1%1.35
- Antwerp over 1.539.1%2.56
- Antwerp over 2.515.4%6.48
- Charleroi over 0.583.6%1.20
- Charleroi over 1.553.9%1.85
- Charleroi over 2.527.1%3.69
- Antwerp clean sheet16.4%6.09
- Charleroi clean sheet25.9%3.85
- Antwerp win to nil11.6%8.62
- Charleroi win to nil21.1%4.73
Handicap
- Antwerp −1.512.5%8.00
- Antwerp −2.54.3%23.04
- Charleroi +1.587.5%1.14
- Charleroi +2.595.7%1.05
- Charleroi −1.526.5%3.77
- Antwerp +1.573.5%1.36
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored72
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result45.0%
1X2 Brier0.511
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right44.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.4% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 55.0% | 78.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 47 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5318 | 0.5330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 59.6% | 63.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.