Antwerp vs Charleroi – 24 Oct 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 Bosuilstadion, Deurne

Antwerp 13th · 7 pts · 8 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played WLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Charleroi are slight favourites.

Charleroi are the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Antwerp have 12.9 days of rest, Charleroi 13.1 and have to travel 90 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel90 kmRest days12.9 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Antwerp28%

Draw24%

Charleroi48%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.81

Antwerp35%

Draw27%

Charleroi37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Antwerp28%

Draw24%

Charleroi48%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.81

Antwerp22%

Draw22%

Charleroi56%

Expected goals 1.20 – 2.03

Antwerp29%

Draw24%

Charleroi47%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.78

Over 2.5 61% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deurne)

10°CDrizzle

Precipitation 33%
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 82%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Antwerp

Charleroi

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

26 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

24 AttackIn forecast 43

19 DefenceIn forecast 50

9 Form indexContext 80

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antwerp

Attack—

Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antwerp

Charleroi

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.86

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

75% Scored inContext 100%

13% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.63 ShotsContext 16.75

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63

34% On target shareContext 34%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.63

64% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.86

16.25 Shots allowedContext 10.88

6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.38 BlocksContext 4.57

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

59% Save rateContext 79%

48% PossessionIn forecast 57%

393 PassesContext 496

316 Accurate passesContext 421

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.66 Team ratingContext 7.10

14.00 FoulsContext 10.13

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.50 ShotsContext 16.80

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

33% On target shareContext 34%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.80

63% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.10 Shots allowedContext 10.40

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63

5.10 BlocksContext 4.50

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

66% Save rateContext 83%

47% PossessionIn forecast 58%

387 PassesContext 484

311 Accurate passesContext 411

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.08

13.20 FoulsContext 10.10

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antwerp LLLLL

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km69 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected

L11 OctA · KVC Westerlo1–51.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–20.7 xPts
L13 SepA · Club Brugge KV1–30.5 xPts
L5 SepA · Standard Liege0–11.1 xPts
L30 AugH · St. Truiden1–41.6 xPts

Charleroi WLWWW

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel90 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected

W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antwerp	Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct	13.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	90 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	69 km	166 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antwerp Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs KVC Westerlo (A) 1–5, 11 Oct

41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)

5D. Foulon 3Álvaro Cortés 20R. Van Helden 17S. Renders

48A. Vermeeren 8M. Benítez

7I. Salah 24T. Somers 14Xander Dierickx

9M. Frey

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct

30M. Koné(G)

24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof

18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir

20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke

21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antwerp No reported absences

Charleroi No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Antwerp+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Charleroi+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Antwerp · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 2.75

Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Antwerp	Charleroi
Union St. Gilloise	L 0–2 H	L 2–3 H
Standard Liege	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Kortrijk	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 A
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Antwerp wins1 draws4 Charleroi wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

10 May 2026Antwerp0–1Charleroi
10 Apr 2026Charleroi2–1Antwerp
25 Jan 2026Antwerp0–2Charleroi
17 Aug 2025Charleroi1–1Antwerp
21 Jan 2024Antwerp4–1Charleroi
21 Oct 2023Charleroi3–2Antwerp

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antwerp	Charleroi	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	2.50	0.88
Match goals	4.00	2.88	3.16
Over 1.5	88%	63%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	62%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	8	8

	Antwerp	Charleroi	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.60
Conceded per game	2.20	1.00
Match goals	3.50	2.60	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antwerp	Charleroi	League
Corners
Corners won	4.63	5.50
Corners conceded	5.50	4.38
Match total	10.13	9.88	10.01
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.13	1.13
Opponent cards	2.25	1.38
Match total	4.38	2.51	3.36
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	0% 0/8

	Antwerp	Charleroi	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	6.50
Corners conceded	6.10	4.70
Match total	10.70	11.20	10.01
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.40
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	4.20	2.80	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.