Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antwerp
10th · 30 pts · 24 played
WLLWL
First leg0–2
0–2Full time
KVC Westerlo
12th · 28 pts · 24 played
LLDWL
Our take
Antwerp were clear favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Antwerp. Antwerp had 6.9 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 8.8 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antwerp61%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo17%
Antwerp54%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo21%
Antwerp61%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo17%
Antwerp53%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo22%
Antwerp61%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 14
Team strength
AntwerpKVC Westerlo
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
24
AttackIn forecast
42
19
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpKVC Westerlo
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
63%
Scored inContext
58%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.17
ShotsContext
14.25
4.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
38%
On target shareContext
31%
6.52
Shots in the boxContext
9.96
58%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.76
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.17
Shots allowedContext
12.71
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
4.38
BlocksContext
4.19
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
75%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
372
PassesContext
387
296
Accurate passesContext
312
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.38
FoulsContext
11.25
12.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
13.00
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.70
BlocksContext
4.60
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
85%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
355
PassesContext
397
276
Accurate passesContext
319
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.90
FoulsContext
11.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km44 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 44 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
21A. Verstraeten
4Yuto Tsunashima
33Z. Van Den Bosch
8D. Praet
5D. Foulon
78Xander Dierickx
79G. Vandeplas
24T. Somers
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
6C. Nsiala
33R. Neustädter
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
8S. Sydorchuk
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.25
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Dender | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| Gent | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Genk | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | D 5–5 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 HW 3–0 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 25 of 69 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Antwerp wins1 draws1 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 30 Aug 2025KVC Westerlo2–0Antwerp
- 23 Dec 2023Antwerp2–2KVC Westerlo
- 15 Sep 2023KVC Westerlo0–3Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.79 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.96 | 10.08 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 13/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 5/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 4.08 | 3.37 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Antwerp | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.60 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.93league 3.90
Red cards0.07league 0.19
Cards 5+21%league 41%
Fouls21.7league 22.8
Penalties0.07league 0.30
Home wins43%league 41%
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Dec 25H · Zulte Waregem2–13
- L27 Sep 25A · Zulte Waregem0–21
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Nov 25A · Charleroi0–21
- W2 Aug 25H · Zulte Waregem3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp24 games · scored 28 · conceded 26
3
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
KVC Westerlo24 games · scored 30 · conceded 37
6
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
12
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
10
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
