Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antwerp
15th · 11 pts · 13 played
LDLLL
3–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière
10th · 17 pts · 13 played
DDDDW
Antwerp47.9%fair odds 2.09
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.70
RAAL La Louvière25.1%fair odds 3.98
Expected goals1.52 – 1.03total 2.56
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antwerp ↓ · RAAL La Louvière → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antwerp goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.77
- 1–011.2%8.96
- 2–19.3%10.76
- 2–09.0%11.13
- 0–08.4%11.90
- 0–17.4%13.55
- 1–26.3%15.82
- 2–24.8%20.80
- 3–14.7%21.21
- 3–04.6%21.95
Winning margin
9.9%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 10.09
14.7%
Antwerp by 2
fair 6.79
23.2%
Antwerp by 1
fair 4.30
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.70
15.6%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 6.41
6.8%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 14.69
2.7%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 36.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Antwerp goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
RAAL La Louvière goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 47.9% | 47.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.2% | +0.8 pp |
| RAAL La Louvière win | 25.1% | 26.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 51.0% | -4.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 54.4% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.52 | 1.59 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.03 | 1.12 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antwerp win47.9%2.09
- Draw27.0%3.70
- RAAL La Louvière win25.1%3.98
- Double chance Antwerp or draw74.9%1.34
- Double chance Antwerp or RAAL La Louvière73.0%1.37
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Antwerp65.6%1.52
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière34.4%2.91
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.1%1.37
- Over 2.547.1%2.13
- Over 3.525.5%3.93
- Over 4.511.6%8.59
- Under 1.526.9%3.71
- Under 2.552.9%1.89
- Under 3.574.5%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Antwerp win and yes20.7%4.82
- Draw and yes18.6%5.38
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes11.7%8.55
Team goals
- Antwerp over 0.578.2%1.28
- Antwerp over 1.544.9%2.23
- Antwerp over 2.519.7%5.09
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.564.5%1.55
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.527.7%3.61
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.58.7%11.52
- Antwerp clean sheet35.5%2.81
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet21.8%4.58
- Antwerp win to nil27.1%3.69
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil13.4%7.45
Handicap
- Antwerp −1.524.6%4.06
- Antwerp −2.59.9%10.09
- RAAL La Louvière +1.575.4%1.33
- RAAL La Louvière +2.590.1%1.11
- RAAL La Louvière −1.59.5%10.50
- Antwerp +1.590.5%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored107
Favourite won47.7%
Avg chance given to result38.6%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 45.1% | 38.2% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 69 of 107 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6061 | 0.5958 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.8% | 50.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 69 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Cercle Brugge43·28·30
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- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Dender77·15·8
- ✓Zulte Waregem 1–4 Union St. Gilloise28·27·46
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 107 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.