Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antwerp
11th · 30 pts · 26 played
LWLLL
First leg0–1
1–0Full time
St. Truiden
2nd · 54 pts · 26 played
WLWWW
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. Antwerp had 6.9 days of rest, St. Truiden 7.1 and had to travel.
Rest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antwerp32%
Draw27%
St. Truiden41%
Antwerp38%
Draw27%
St. Truiden35%
Antwerp32%
Draw27%
St. Truiden41%
Antwerp26%
Draw26%
St. Truiden49%
Antwerp32%
Draw27%
St. Truiden41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.61
- Matches 28
Team strength
AntwerpSt. Truiden
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
24
AttackIn forecast
37
19
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpSt. Truiden
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.12
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
62%
Scored inContext
85%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.65
ShotsContext
14.19
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
32%
6.24
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
59%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.70
13.42
Shots allowedContext
11.38
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
4.35
BlocksContext
3.38
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
76%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
366
PassesContext
443
288
Accurate passesContext
363
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.50
FoulsContext
11.54
12.23
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
14.10
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
58%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.89
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
80%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
358
PassesContext
451
272
Accurate passesContext
367
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.80
FoulsContext
10.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 84 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
23G. Bijl
4Yuto Tsunashima
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
30C. Scott
8D. Praet
17S. Renders
7G. Kerk
14A. Valencia
18V. Janssen
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
4L. Mbe Soh
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
13R. Ito
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
42Keisuke Goto
7A. Muja
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-5
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.31
St. Truiden · Away
2.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-3
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | W 4–0 AL 0–3 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Dender | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Anderlecht | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Gent | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Genk | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 30 of 75 · 1.20 per game | 51 of 75 · 2.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Antwerp wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 2 Nov 2025St. Truiden1–0Antwerp
- 3 Mar 2024Antwerp3–0St. Truiden
- 24 Nov 2023St. Truiden1–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.12 | |
| Match goals | 2.27 | 2.81 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 58% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 58% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 10.12 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.34 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Antwerp | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.10 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.20 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.87
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 40%
Fouls24.5league 22.8
Penalties0.61league 0.31
Home wins54%league 40%
Antwerp5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.4
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L23 Nov 25H · Dender1–21
- W10 Aug 25H · OH Leuven3–13
- L17 Feb 24H · KV Mechelen0–12
- L28 Jan 24A · AS Eupen0–12
- L21 Oct 23A · Charleroi2–32
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W6 Feb 26A · KVC Westerlo4–01
- W27 Oct 23H · RWDM2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp26 games · scored 29 · conceded 30
3
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
6
5
31-45
6
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
St. Truiden26 games · scored 44 · conceded 29
4
2
0-15
8
7
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
7
61-75
13
4
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
