Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antwerp
8th · 24 pts · 19 played
LWWWD
First leg0–2
2–1Full time
Zulte Waregem
11th · 23 pts · 19 played
DDDDL
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 27). Antwerp had 5.8 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 6.7 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days5.8 · 6.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem22%
Antwerp53%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem22%
Antwerp52%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem22%
Antwerp45%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem28%
Antwerp53%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem22%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
AntwerpZulte Waregem
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
24
AttackIn forecast
27
19
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpZulte Waregem
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
68%
Scored inContext
74%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.37
ShotsContext
10.53
4.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.94
38%
On target shareContext
36%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.53
60%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.94
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.21
Shots allowedContext
13.79
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
4.74
BlocksContext
3.61
3.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
75%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
362
PassesContext
395
288
Accurate passesContext
320
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.11
FoulsContext
11.05
12.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.21
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
39%
On target shareContext
35%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
63%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.20
BlocksContext
3.44
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
82%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
351
PassesContext
410
273
Accurate passesContext
329
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.60
FoulsContext
10.70
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km111 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km130 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 6.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 111 km | 130 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
26R. Bozhinov
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
30C. Scott
78Xander Dierickx
16M. Benítez
24T. Somers
9M. Al Sahafi
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
6E. Lofolomo
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
36S. Ujka
12W. Paugain
39M. Aké
18A. Ementa
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.20
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Gent | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Genk | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Dender | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Points | 24 of 54 · 1.33 per game | 20 of 54 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Antwerp wins0 draws1 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 27 Sep 2025Zulte Waregem2–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.21 | 2.74 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 42% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Antwerp | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.16 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 9.05 | 10.23 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 3.68 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Antwerp | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.22 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.45league 3.80
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+9%league 41%
Fouls21.6league 22.8
Penalties0.09league 0.30
Home wins36%league 40%
Antwerp1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Sep 25A · Zulte Waregem0–21
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · Antwerp2–00
- L2 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp19 games · scored 22 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Zulte Waregem19 games · scored 25 · conceded 27
3
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
