Arouca vs AVS – 9 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 9 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca

3–1Full time

AVS

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Arouca. Arouca had ? days of rest, AVS ? and had to travel.

Matches / 14d0 · 0

Arouca53%

Draw26%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.98

Arouca54%

Draw25%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Arouca54%

Draw25%

AVS21%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.95

Arouca46%

Draw27%

AVS27%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.09

Arouca53%

Draw25%

AVS22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.05

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 9

Team strength

Arouca

AVS

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

28 AttackIn forecast 17

37 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

AVS

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

AVS

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.30 ShotsContext 9.30

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.30

38% On target shareContext 25%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

63% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 5%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.80 Shots allowedContext 15.60

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60

3.70 BlocksContext 3.20

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.75

66% Save rateContext 63%

53% PossessionIn forecast 41%

400 PassesContext 318

318 Accurate passesContext 240

79% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.30 FoulsContext 14.60

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AVS

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	AVS
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1João Valido(G)

16Arnau Solà 3José Fontán 5B. Popović 78Alex Pinto

21T. Fukui 89Pedro Santos

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

23D. Nandin

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

AVS Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

93Simão(G)

24Kiki 42C. Devenish 33Aderllan Santos 50Edson Mucuana

15Jaume Grau 27Ángel Algobia

10Rafael Barbosa 8Pedro Lima 11B. Akinsola

9Jordi Escobar

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AVS Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca-0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AVS+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home No home games yet this season.

AVS · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Arouca wins1 draws0 AVS wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

8 Mar 2025AVS0–1Arouca
5 Oct 2024Arouca1–1AVS

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.65
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	51%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Arouca	AVS	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.65
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	51%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	14.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Arouca	AVS	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	3.10
Corners conceded	5.44	4.80
Match total	8.88	7.90	14.50
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.40
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	5.00	5.10	7.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 7.00

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+33%league 100%

Fouls26.7league 30.5

Penalties0.00league 0.00

Home wins44%league 0%

Arouca1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Aug 24H · Nacional1–02

AVS1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L8 Feb 25H · Santa Clara1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.