Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. Arouca had 16.1 days of rest, Estoril 15.1 and had to travel 266 km.
Away travel266 kmRest days16.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Arouca48%
Draw26%
Estoril26%
Arouca39%
Draw27%
Estoril34%
Arouca48%
Draw26%
Estoril26%
Arouca41%
Draw27%
Estoril32%
Arouca49%
Draw26%
Estoril26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 77
Team strength
Arouca
Estoril
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
28
AttackIn forecast
21
37
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaEstoril
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
2.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
70%
Scored inContext
70%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.04
ShotsContext
11.59
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
34%
On target shareContext
36%
6.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.48
59%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.19
OffsidesContext
1.48
13.22
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
4.08
BlocksContext
2.83
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
60%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
396
PassesContext
426
328
Accurate passesContext
349
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.44
FoulsContext
12.33
11.48
Fouls sufferedContext
11.96
2.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.52
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
64%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.44
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
410
PassesContext
456
343
Accurate passesContext
384
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.90
FoulsContext
11.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel266 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 15.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 266 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
10Pablo Gozálbez
17Barbero
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
5A. Tsoungui
2Ricard Sánchez
10J. Holsgrove
8Xeka
6Jandro Orellana
12João Carvalho
19André Lacximicant
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.92
Estoril · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-7
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 0–5 A | L 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nacional | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HW 4–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Tondela | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Alverca | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Estrela | L 1–3 A | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game | 34 of 78 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Arouca wins1 draws3 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.86 – 2.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 7 Nov 2025Estoril4–3Arouca
- 16 Mar 2025Arouca1–1Estoril
- 26 Oct 2024Estoril4–1Arouca
- 20 Jan 2024Estoril1–2Arouca
- 13 Aug 2023Arouca4–3Estoril
- 15 May 2023Estoril2–0Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.04 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.41 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Arouca | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.12 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 9.44 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 12/26 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 5.48 | 4.74 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 20/27 | 85% 23/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 16/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Arouca | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.90 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.50 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.81
Red cards0.43league 0.25
Cards 5+57%league 57%
Fouls27.7league 26.9
Penalties0.35league 0.44
Home wins60%league 41%
Arouca3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L6 Mar 26A · Famalicao0–11
- D13 Apr 25A · Benfica2–23
- L8 Oct 23A · Sporting CP1–27
Estoril4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D8 Mar 25H · Farense2–22
- L23 Dec 24A · Benfica0–31
- L6 Oct 24A · Farense0–13
- W30 Mar 24H · FC Porto1–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca26 games · scored 34 · conceded 50
7
6
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
12
31-45
8
8
46-60
10
5
61-75
2
12
76-90
Estoril27 games · scored 48 · conceded 44
5
9
0-15
8
5
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
6
46-60
8
9
61-75
6
8
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
5
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
