Arouca vs FC Porto – 29 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 7 Mon, Sep 29 · 20:00 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 10th · 8 pts · 6 played LDDLW

0–4Full time

FC Porto 2nd · 18 pts · 6 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 29). Arouca had 9.2 days of rest, FC Porto 4 and had to travel 39 km.

Away travel39 kmRest days9.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arouca19%

Draw24%

FC Porto57%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.80

Arouca20%

Draw24%

FC Porto56%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.82

Arouca19%

Draw24%

FC Porto57%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.80

Arouca15%

Draw22%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.01

Arouca20%

Draw24%

FC Porto56%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.82

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 7

Team strength

Arouca

FC Porto

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

28 AttackIn forecast 74

37 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

FC Porto

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.17

0.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.50

+0.88 Goals minus xGContext +0.56

67% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 83%

9.17 ShotsContext 15.83

3.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

35% On target shareContext 40%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

54% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 16%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.00 Shots allowedContext 9.67

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

3.17 BlocksContext 4.00

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.60

53% Save rateContext 89%

51% PossessionIn forecast 56%

386 PassesContext 453

323 Accurate passesContext 391

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.59 Team ratingContext 7.08

14.00 FoulsContext 14.50

13.83 Fouls sufferedContext 9.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.30

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

+0.64 Goals minus xGContext +0.60

60% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 70%

10.60 ShotsContext 15.10

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

36% On target shareContext 37%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

56% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 16%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.78

12.80 Shots allowedContext 9.60

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

3.30 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

59% Save rateContext 83%

53% PossessionIn forecast 58%

401 PassesContext 482

332 Accurate passesContext 419

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.13

14.10 FoulsContext 13.80

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,396 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel39 km3,764 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,396 km	3,764 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1João Valido(G)

16Arnau Solà 4M. Rocha 5B. Popović 28Tiago Esgaio

8David Simão 21T. Fukui

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

FC Porto · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Arouca	FC Porto
Nacional	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Casa Pia	L 0–2 H	W 4–0 H
Guimaraes	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 H
Rio Ave	D 3–3 H	W 3–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–6 A	W 2–1 A
Points	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Arouca wins1 draws4 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

1 Mar 2025Arouca0–2FC Porto
29 Sep 2024FC Porto4–0Arouca
12 Feb 2024Arouca3–2FC Porto
3 Sep 2023FC Porto1–1Arouca
8 May 2023Arouca0–1FC Porto
28 Dec 2022FC Porto5–1Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.50
Conceded per game	2.33	0.17
Match goals	3.83	2.67	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	17%
Both teams scored	67%	17%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	83%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	6	6

	Arouca	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.29
Conceded per game	2.33	0.14
Match goals	3.83	2.43	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	71%
Over 2.5	67%	57%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	14%
Both teams scored	67%	14%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	86%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	6	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	6.17
Corners conceded	3.83	3.17
Match total	7.66	9.34	9.16
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.67
Opponent cards	2.83	2.50
Match total	5.16	5.17	5.11
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6

	Arouca	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	6.22
Corners conceded	4.33	3.44
Match total	7.77	9.66	9.16
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.80	3.30
Match total	5.40	5.50	5.11
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 5.03

Red cards0.14league 0.23

Cards 5+57%league 61%

Fouls28.2league 28.0

Penalties0.43league 0.42

Home wins57%league 35%

Arouca

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.