Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 22). Arouca had 6.8 days of rest, GIL Vicente 7.9 and had to travel 74 km.
Away travel74 kmRest days6.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Arouca36%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente36%
Arouca37%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente36%
Arouca36%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente36%
Arouca29%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente43%
Arouca37%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente36%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 25
Team strength
Arouca
GIL Vicente
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
32
37
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaGIL Vicente
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
2.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
53%
Scored inContext
73%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.00
ShotsContext
13.20
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
29%
On target shareContext
31%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.27
56%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.80
Shots allowedContext
9.80
5.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.85
BlocksContext
2.60
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
56%
Save rateContext
84%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
383
PassesContext
355
315
Accurate passesContext
286
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.27
FoulsContext
14.73
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
14.53
2.47
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.00
ShotsContext
13.10
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
26%
On target shareContext
31%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
56%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.29
13.70
Shots allowedContext
8.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.13
BlocksContext
2.80
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
84%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
367
PassesContext
370
296
Accurate passesContext
300
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.60
FoulsContext
15.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel74 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 74 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,074 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
3José Fontán
4M. Rocha
66Omar Fayed
28Tiago Esgaio
89Pedro Santos
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
20Hevertton Santos
48Espigares
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
7T. Touré
95Santi García
77Murilo
9Pablo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.13
GIL Vicente · Away
1.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Estrela | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estoril | L 3–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–5 A | L 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| AVS | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game | 26 of 42 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Arouca wins4 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 10 May 2025GIL Vicente1–1Arouca
- 27 Dec 2024Arouca1–1GIL Vicente
- 26 Apr 2024GIL Vicente2–2Arouca
- 16 Dec 2023Arouca3–0GIL Vicente
- 5 Feb 2023GIL Vicente1–1Arouca
- 15 Aug 2022Arouca1–0GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.47 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.47 | 1.87 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 27% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Arouca | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 10.09 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.87 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.73 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 5.73 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 87% 13/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Arouca | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.43 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.90 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 5.15
Red cards0.32league 0.30
Cards 5+56%league 62%
Fouls25.2league 27.4
Penalties0.20league 0.45
Home wins48%league 36%
Arouca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Feb 24A · Casa Pia0–12
GIL Vicente5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 25A · SC Braga1–03
- L6 Apr 25H · Moreirense0–13
- W20 Apr 24A · Moreirense1–00
- L6 Jan 24A · Farense0–12
- L4 Nov 23A · Famalicao1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca14 games · scored 15 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
GIL Vicente15 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
5
0-15
3
16-30
8
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
5
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
