Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Maritimo. Arouca had 5.8 days of rest, Maritimo 7 and had to travel 1,198 km.
Away travel1,198 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Arouca56%
Draw23%
Maritimo21%
Arouca58%
Draw23%
Maritimo19%
Arouca56%
Draw23%
Maritimo21%
Arouca48%
Draw25%
Maritimo27%
Arouca56%
Draw23%
Maritimo21%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 71
Team strength
Arouca
Maritimo
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
28
AttackIn forecast
15
37
DefenceIn forecast
20
66
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaritimo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaMaritimo
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
67%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
7.67
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
33%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
66%
Box shareContext
79%
22%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
17.33
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.67
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
86%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
429
PassesContext
326
360
Accurate passesContext
254
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.33
FoulsContext
16.00
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
14.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.78
57%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.60
BlocksContext
3.56
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
431
PassesContext
356
362
Accurate passesContext
287
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.40
FoulsContext
16.60
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
WWL
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 6 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Maritimo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 78 km | 2,444 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Maritimo
Confirmed XI
13Alfonso Pastor(G)
23Paulo Henrique
44Romain Correia
4Rafael Fernandes
2Igor Julião
18V. Danilović
6Rodrigo Andrade
10Martín Tejón
14R. Guzzo
35B. Limbombe
17Adrián Butzke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Maritimo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Maritimo · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Arouca wins1 draws0 Maritimo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 8 Apr 2023Arouca1–0Maritimo
- 23 Oct 2022Maritimo1–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Arouca | Maritimo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.67 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 7.66 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Arouca | Maritimo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.50 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 6.60 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.72league 4.12
Red cards0.44league 0.20
Cards 5+73%league 36%
Fouls28.5league 25.4
Penalties0.44league 0.32
Home wins38%league 44%
Arouca8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.3.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- D30 Aug 25A · Guimaraes1–14
- W4 Jan 25A · Boavista3–17
- L12 Aug 24H · Guimaraes0–17
- D26 Apr 24A · GIL Vicente2–21
- L15 Jan 24A · Guimaraes1–23
Maritimo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Dec 22A · Rio Ave1–11
- L4 Sep 22A · Santa Clara1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Maritimo3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
