Arsenal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Arsenal79.2%fair odds 1.26
Draw14.1%fair odds 7.11
Coventry6.7%fair odds 14.93
Expected goals2.67 – 0.68total 3.35
Likeliest score2–012.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Coventry
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Arsenal ↓ · Coventry → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Arsenal goals, columns Coventry goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.5%7.98
- 3–011.2%8.96
- 1–09.0%11.06
- 2–18.5%11.78
- 3–17.6%13.22
- 4–07.5%13.41
- 1–16.7%14.94
- 4–15.1%19.80
- 5–04.0%25.09
- 0–03.8%25.99
Winning margin
36.7%
Arsenal by 3+
fair 2.73
22.0%
Arsenal by 2
fair 4.54
20.5%
Arsenal by 1
fair 4.87
14.1%
Draw
fair 7.11
5.0%
Coventry by 1
fair 20.20
1.4%
Coventry by 2
fair 70.64
0.3%
Coventry by 3+
fair 302.36
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Arsenal goals
7%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
28%4+
Coventry goals
51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 79.2% | 78.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 14.1% | 14.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Coventry win | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 63.3% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.1% | 44.9% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Arsenal | 2.67 | 2.61 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Coventry | 0.68 | 0.66 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Arsenal win79.2%1.26
- Draw14.1%7.11
- Coventry win6.7%14.93
- Double chance Arsenal or draw93.3%1.07
- Double chance Arsenal or Coventry85.9%1.16
- Double chance Coventry or draw20.8%4.82
- Draw no bet Arsenal92.2%1.08
- Draw no bet Coventry7.8%12.83
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.1%1.18
- Over 2.565.0%1.54
- Over 3.543.1%2.32
- Over 4.524.6%4.06
- Under 1.514.9%6.70
- Under 2.535.0%2.86
- Under 3.556.9%1.76
Both teams to score
- Yes46.1%2.17
- No53.9%1.86
- Yes and over 2.539.5%2.53
- Arsenal win and yes32.3%3.10
- Draw and yes10.2%9.79
- Coventry win and yes3.6%27.53
Team goals
- Arsenal over 0.593.1%1.07
- Arsenal over 1.574.6%1.34
- Arsenal over 2.549.9%2.00
- Coventry over 0.549.2%2.03
- Coventry over 1.514.8%6.76
- Coventry over 2.53.1%31.80
- Arsenal clean sheet50.8%1.97
- Coventry clean sheet6.9%14.47
- Arsenal win to nil46.9%2.13
- Coventry win to nil3.1%32.64
Handicap
- Arsenal −1.558.7%1.70
- Arsenal −2.536.7%2.73
- Coventry +1.541.3%2.42
- Coventry +2.563.3%1.58
- Coventry −1.51.7%57.26
- Arsenal +1.598.3%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.