Arsenal vs Coventry – 21 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 21 · 20:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal

3–0Full time

Coventry

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Coventry. Arsenal had 89.2 days of rest, Coventry ? and had to travel 138 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel138 kmRest days89.2 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0

Arsenal80%

Draw13%

Coventry7%

Expected goals 2.67 – 0.68

Arsenal82%

Draw12%

Coventry6%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.64

Arsenal80%

Draw13%

Coventry7%

Expected goals 2.67 – 0.68

Arsenal73%

Draw17%

Coventry10%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.76

Arsenal79%

Draw14%

Coventry7%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.66

Over 2.5 65% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

18°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 54%

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 110

Team strength

Arsenal

Coventry

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

86 AttackIn forecast 47

95 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Coventry

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Coventry

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

90% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.90 ShotsContext 14.90

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

28% On target shareContext 33%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.89

68% Box shareContext 73%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.63

11.50 Shots allowedContext 8.90

2.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.78

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.78

77% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 60%

443 PassesContext 483

373 Accurate passesContext 409

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.04

10.60 FoulsContext 9.60

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest89.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Coventry

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Coventry
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	89.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 May	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	10	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 3Cristhian Mosquera 4B. White

41D. Rice 49M. Lewis-Skelly

17C. Tzolis 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

Coventry Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

19C. Rushworth(G)

3J. Dasilva 24A. Amenda 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk

6M. Grimes

23S. Thomas-Asante 16O. Onyeka 8C. Yirenkyi 18L. Tchaouna

9E. Simms

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Absences are shown before kick-off

Coventry Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Coventry+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home No home games yet this season.

Coventry · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Coventry	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.35
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	65%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	46%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Arsenal	Coventry	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	—
Conceded per game	0.60	—
Match goals	2.10	—	3.35
Over 1.5	60%	—
Over 2.5	50%	—	65%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	40%	—	46%
Clean sheets	60%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	10	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Coventry
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Arsenal	Coventry
Corners
Corners won	4.20	5.22
Corners conceded	4.60	2.33
Match total	8.80	7.55
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	0.90
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.50	2.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 110 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74

Red cards0.14

Cards 5+41%

Fouls22.0

Penalties0.18

Home wins47%

Arsenal1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W26 Oct 25H · Crystal Palace1–00

Coventry4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W7 Dec 24A · Millwall1–01
W2 Nov 24A · Middlesbrough3–03
L13 Apr 24A · Birmingham0–32
L16 Mar 22H · Hull City0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.