AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were clear favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 30). AS Roma had 9 days of rest, Genoa 8 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
AS Roma67%
Draw21%
Genoa12%
AS Roma68%
Draw20%
Genoa12%
AS Roma67%
Draw21%
Genoa12%
AS Roma60%
Draw24%
Genoa17%
AS Roma68%
Draw20%
Genoa12%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 67
Team strength
AS Roma
Genoa
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
72
AttackIn forecast
23
75
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaGenoa
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
69%
Scored inContext
63%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.13
ShotsContext
10.75
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.87
68%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.30
10.81
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
2.62
BlocksContext
4.23
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
86%
Save rateContext
65%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
482
PassesContext
350
405
Accurate passesContext
275
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.25
FoulsContext
13.81
14.75
Fouls sufferedContext
15.13
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.80
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.22
BlocksContext
4.13
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
86%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
478
PassesContext
344
404
Accurate passesContext
274
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.50
FoulsContext
13.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.90
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel402 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
24J. Ziółkowski
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
21P. Dybala
18M. Soulé
11E. Ferguson
Genoa
Confirmed XI
39D. Sommariva(G)
22J. Vásquez
34S. Otoa
5L. Østigård
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
9Vítinha
18C. Ekuban
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genoa+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Genoa · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Como | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Udinese | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Parma | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 42 · 1.93 per game | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 AS Roma wins2 draws1 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 17 Jan 2025AS Roma3–1Genoa
- 15 Sep 2024Genoa1–1AS Roma
- 19 May 2024AS Roma1–0Genoa
- 28 Sep 2023Genoa4–1AS Roma
- 5 Feb 2022AS Roma0–0Genoa
- 21 Nov 2021Genoa0–2AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.69 | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 6% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 63% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 38% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| AS Roma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.38 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 9.17 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 4/16 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 4.76 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| AS Roma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.13 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.93
Red cards0.19league 0.16
Cards 5+49%league 39%
Fouls26.2league 26.0
Penalties0.42league 0.30
Home wins34%league 39%
AS Roma8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against6 · 1
Reds1
- W25 May 25A · Torino2–01
- W9 Mar 25A · Empoli1–00
- W22 Dec 24H · Parma5–01
- W29 Jan 24A · Salernitana2–13
- W17 Oct 22A · Sampdoria1–03
Genoa2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Feb 22H · Salernitana1–13
- L29 Aug 21H · Napoli1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma16 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genoa16 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
