AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 71). AS Roma had 13.2 days of rest, Inter 14.1 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days13.2 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
AS Roma32%
Draw28%
Inter40%
AS Roma32%
Draw27%
Inter41%
AS Roma31%
Draw28%
Inter41%
AS Roma26%
Draw27%
Inter47%
AS Roma32%
Draw27%
Inter40%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 92
Team strength
AS Roma
Inter
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
72
AttackIn forecast
91
75
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaInter
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.83
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
83%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.83
ShotsContext
19.67
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.17
36%
On target shareContext
31%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
64%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.67
Shots allowedContext
8.50
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
1.75
BlocksContext
3.20
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
88%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
479
PassesContext
527
396
Accurate passesContext
465
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.07
14.83
FoulsContext
13.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.83
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.80
ShotsContext
17.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
36%
On target shareContext
33%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
64%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.67
9.60
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.38
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
495
PassesContext
512
418
Accurate passesContext
448
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.06
15.00
FoulsContext
12.40
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km468 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel479 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 468 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
23G. Mancini
5O. Ndicka
43Wesley
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
21P. Dybala
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Inter-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Inter · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 AS Roma wins0 draws6 Inter wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.88
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 27 Apr 2025Inter0–1AS Roma
- 20 Oct 2024AS Roma0–1Inter
- 10 Feb 2024AS Roma2–4Inter
- 29 Oct 2023Inter1–0AS Roma
- 6 May 2023AS Roma0–2Inter
- 1 Oct 2022Inter1–2AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.17 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| AS Roma | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.63 | 4.17 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 38% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 83% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.17 | 11.83 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 2.34 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| AS Roma | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 10.44 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.59league 3.63
Red cards0.24league 0.13
Cards 5+51%league 35%
Fouls24.9league 26.1
Penalties0.14league 0.24
Home wins35%league 38%
AS Roma11 with this referee
Record2-4-5
Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L24 Nov 24A · Napoli0–13
- L20 Oct 24H · Inter0–12
- L26 May 24A · Empoli1–21
- D10 Mar 24A · Fiorentina2–25
- D12 Nov 23A · Lazio0–04
Inter7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 May 25A · Como2–03
- W16 Mar 25A · Atalanta2–03
- W20 Oct 24A · AS Roma1–03
- W3 Dec 23A · Napoli3–02
- W5 Feb 23H · AC Milan1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma6 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Inter6 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
