AS Roma vs Juventus – 1 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 1 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 4th · 50 pts · 26 played DLWDW

3–3Full time

Juventus 6th · 46 pts · 26 played WWDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. AS Roma had 7 days of rest, Juventus 8.2 and had to travel 526 km.

Away travel526 kmRest days7 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

AS Roma45%

Draw26%

Juventus29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.20

AS Roma45%

Draw27%

Juventus28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.16

AS Roma45%

Draw26%

Juventus28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.19

AS Roma37%

Draw27%

Juventus36%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.35

AS Roma45%

Draw26%

Juventus29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.28

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 89

Team strength

AS Roma

Juventus

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

72 AttackIn forecast 57

75 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Juventus

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

0.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.96

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

73% Scored inContext 77%

46% Clean sheetsContext 35%

13.65 ShotsContext 15.81

4.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.92

34% On target shareContext 38%

9.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.96

69% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.09

9.23 Shots allowedContext 10.12

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.92

2.70 BlocksContext 2.96

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.23

84% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 57%

486 PassesContext 517

408 Accurate passesContext 450

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.92

14.31 FoulsContext 12.58

14.12 Fouls sufferedContext 10.27

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 1.31

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

0.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.20 ShotsContext 15.00

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

31% On target shareContext 36%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.75

70% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

7.10 Shots allowedContext 12.60

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.29 BlocksContext 3.67

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

85% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

466 PassesContext 481

390 Accurate passesContext 409

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.50 FoulsContext 13.70

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km373 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel526 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb	8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	526 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	373 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-5-2

99M. Svilar(G)

19M. Çelik 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 61N. Pisilli 4B. Cristante 17K. Koné 2D. Rensch

14D. Malen 7L. Pellegrini

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Perin(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 8T. Koopmeiners 22W. McKennie

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-0.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Juventus+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.15points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 9-1-3
Scored: 1.46
Conceded: 0.46

Juventus · Away 1.54points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-5
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Juventus
Cremonese	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Napoli	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Udinese	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Torino	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
Sassuolo	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	W 3–0 A
Lecce	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Atalanta	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Genoa	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
Como	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Parma	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Inter	L 0–1 H	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
Verona	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Lazio	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Pisa	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Bologna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	50 of 75 · 2.00 per game	43 of 75 · 1.72 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 AS Roma wins4 draws4 Juventus wins

Goals per game0.89 – 1.22 Over 2.522% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%

20 Dec 2025Juventus2–1AS Roma
6 Apr 2025AS Roma1–1Juventus
1 Sep 2024Juventus0–0AS Roma
5 May 2024AS Roma1–1Juventus
30 Dec 2023Juventus1–0AS Roma
5 Mar 2023AS Roma1–0Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.65
Conceded per game	0.62	0.96
Match goals	1.92	2.62	2.74
Over 1.5	54%	77%
Over 2.5	27%	46%	52%
Over 3.5	12%	23%
Both teams scored	27%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	46%	35%
Failed to score	27%	23%
Games	26	26

	AS Roma	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.20
Conceded per game	0.50	1.00
Match goals	2.20	3.20	2.74
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.96	5.29
Corners conceded	3.04	3.71
Match total	8.00	9.00	8.78
Over 8.5	38% 10/26	46% 11/24
Over 9.5	27% 7/26	38% 9/24
Over 10.5	19% 5/26	25% 6/24
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.38
Opponent cards	2.42	2.19
Match total	4.42	3.57	3.96
Over 3.5	65% 17/26	50% 13/26
Over 4.5	46% 12/26	38% 10/26

	AS Roma	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	6.11
Corners conceded	2.70	3.22
Match total	6.90	9.33	8.78
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.20	3.70	3.96
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 3.78

Red cards0.15league 0.19

Cards 5+43%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 25.2

Penalties0.47league 0.31

Home wins39%league 39%

AS Roma15 with this referee

Record7-3-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

L20 Dec 25A · Juventus1–23
W21 Sep 25A · Lazio1–01
L12 May 25A · Atalanta1–20
D13 Apr 25A · Lazio1–12
W26 Jan 25A · Udinese2–12

Juventus9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 3

W20 Dec 25H · AS Roma2–12
D27 Sep 25H · Atalanta1–10
L9 Mar 25H · Atalanta0–41
W9 Nov 24H · Torino2–01
W30 Dec 23H · AS Roma1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.