AS Roma vs Parma – 29 Oct 2025

Serie A Gameweek 9 Wed, Oct 29 · 17:30 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 3rd · 18 pts · 8 played WWWLW

2–1Full time

Parma 15th · 7 pts · 8 played DWLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Parma. AS Roma had 3.1 days of rest, Parma 4.2 and had to travel 368 km.

Away travel368 kmRest days3.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

AS Roma68%

Draw20%

Parma12%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.74

AS Roma67%

Draw20%

Parma13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

AS Roma66%

Draw21%

Parma13%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.76

AS Roma61%

Draw23%

Parma16%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.83

AS Roma69%

Draw19%

Parma12%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.82

Over 2.5 53% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

AS Roma

Parma

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

72 AttackIn forecast 20

75 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Parma

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.38

0.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

75% Scored inContext 25%

63% Clean sheetsContext 38%

13.25 ShotsContext 9.63

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.86

38% On target shareContext 26%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.43

66% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 4%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.60

10.13 Shots allowedContext 12.63

2.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13

2.00 BlocksContext 4.00

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

86% Save rateContext 79%

59% PossessionIn forecast 43%

482 PassesContext 322

402 Accurate passesContext 250

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.74

15.25 FoulsContext 11.13

17.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

70% Scored inContext 30%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.20 ShotsContext 10.10

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

66% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 6%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.20 Shots allowedContext 11.90

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.00 BlocksContext 3.80

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

77% Save rateContext 75%

60% PossessionIn forecast 42%

496 PassesContext 320

414 Accurate passesContext 248

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.79

15.70 FoulsContext 10.90

16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km694 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Parma

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel368 km236 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct	4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	368 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	694 km	236 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

21P. Dybala 18M. Soulé

11E. Ferguson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Parma Confirmed XI

4-4-2

31Z. Suzuki(G)

27Sascha Britschgi 5L. Valenti 39A. Circati 15E. Delprato

24C. Ordoñez 22O. Sørensen 8N. Estévez 10Adrián Bernabé

32P. Cutrone 9Mateo Pellegrino

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Parma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+1.9 pp
Draw-0.9 pp
Parma-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 0.50

Parma · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Parma
Torino	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 AS Roma wins0 draws0 Parma wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

16 Feb 2025Parma0–1AS Roma
22 Dec 2024AS Roma5–0Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.38
Conceded per game	0.38	0.88
Match goals	1.38	1.25	2.80
Over 1.5	25%	50%
Over 2.5	13%	13%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	13%	25%	46%
Clean sheets	63%	38%
Failed to score	25%	75%
Games	8	8

	AS Roma	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.38
Conceded per game	0.70	0.88
Match goals	1.70	1.25	2.80
Over 1.5	40%	50%
Over 2.5	30%	13%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	30%	25%	46%
Clean sheets	40%	38%
Failed to score	30%	75%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	5.25	3.57
Corners conceded	3.38	4.29
Match total	8.63	7.86	9.08
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.75
Opponent cards	2.63	2.00
Match total	4.38	3.75	4.00
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8

	AS Roma	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.78
Corners conceded	3.20	4.11
Match total	9.20	7.89	9.08
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	2.90	2.10
Match total	4.90	3.80	4.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Valerio Crezzini 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.25league 3.90

Red cards0.00league 0.12

Cards 5+25%league 38%

Fouls28.0league 25.7

Penalties0.25league 0.28

Home wins50%league 37%

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

Parma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.